2008 ine bumpy yebhizinesi rehotera reUS

Los Angeles, California (eTN) - PaAmerican Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) yakaitwa svondo rapfuura muLA, nyanzvi dzepamusoro dzehotera dzinofungidzira kuparara kweindasitiri mumazuva ezvino, kana kuderera kuri kuuya. Zvinonyanya kurehwa muna 2008 zvinoratidza mazinga ekugara; avhareji mareti uye mihoro inopfava zvine mwero muUS, maererano neOxford Economics. Maonero ekutengeserana kwekudyara kwemahotera muUnited States anogona kusataridzika kupenya, asi anogona kuvandudza. Gore ra2007 rakaona madonhwe makuru, asi 2008 anogona kudzoka mune mamwe misika nemaguta akakosha mushure menguva shoma.

Sekureva kwaMark Lomanno, purezidhendi weSmith Travel Research, indasitiri yakaona vagari vakaderera pa 0.1 muzana uye avhareji yemazuva ese kana ADR inoderera 5.9 muzana muna Nyamavhuvhu 2007. Kambani yeLomanno yakashuma mahotera akasimba anoramba akasimba nemitengo yekugara uye RevPARs vachiri vatano zvisinei nechikwereti. hutsinye muna 2007. Huwandu hwehutsotsi hweCMBS kuchikamu chepokugara hwakanga hwakaderera ne0.6 muzana kusvika muchikamu chetatu chegore ra2007. Akayeuka kuti, "Kudiwa mumisika yepamusoro makumi maviri neshanu Sept. 25 isati yasvika yakakwira nekukurumidza, mitengo isati yaderera izvo zvakaita kuti bhizinesi mumisika yepamusoro makumi maviri neshanu riderere kunyangwe gore ra11 risati rasvika." Kutevera kukurumidza kunyura uye nekukasira spike mushure me25-2001, kudiwa kwepamusoro makumi maviri neshanu kwakapfava. Supply haina kutora zvakare.

"Kudzikira kwanhasi kuchakanganisa misika makumi maviri neshanu yeUS kubva pasi-kumusoro kwete kumusoro-pasi. Zvikamu zvakasiyana zvemusika zvichakanganiswa zvakasiyana nekuderera kubva pasi-kumusoro zvakare. Kutengesera uye kudiwa kunokura muzvikamu zvese asi mitengo icharamba yakanyarara pamusika. Mahotera epamusoro-soro uye epamusoro-soro mumakore apfuura akatanga kudzikira nekukurumidza kupfuura mahotera ehupfumi anoratidza mufananidzo wakagadzikana, ”akadaro Lomanno. Asi nhasi kudiwa kwepamusoro uye kumusoro kwakagadzikana; mitengo uye ADRs yakasimba; uye hupfumi hwehupfumi huri kukura zvisinei pamwero wakaderera.

Iwo mufananidzo wakasiyana-siyana parizvino, unoratidza nguva inononoka muindasitiri yehotera. Misika makumi maviri neshanu yepamusoro uye zvivakwa zvepamusoro zvichakanganiswa asi kwete zvakanyanya seyechipiri neyepamusoro misika kana iyo iri pazasi-kumagumo kwechiyero chemutengo. “Kune makamuri 25 ari kuvakwa muUS, anosvika 211,000 akarongwa kuvhurwa muna 166,000; asi 2008 muzana bedzi ndiyo ichazarura chaizvoizvo. Pachava nekuwedzera kwemakamuri anovharwa, kuwedzera kwemambure ekugovera kwe65 muzana kusvika ku2.2 muzana; kudiwa kuchakwira kusvika pachikamu che2.3 percent,” vakadaro.

R. Mark Woodworth, mutungamiri wePKF Hospitality Research, akati kana zvasvika kune dzimba, misika yakawanda yatove mukuderera kwakadzika. Vatengi vari kuita sarudzo dzakaomarara dzakaremerwa nekudonha kwezvivakwa, sub-prime mess, yakasanganiswa nemafuta uye gasi kukwira kwemitengo. “Worry, usavhunduka. Idambudziko rezvemari pasi rose. Kwatiri chaiko ndiko kune hutano hwekuora mwoyo chikamu chemusika uye chekugovera uye kudiwa, "akadaro.

America yakatanga makore gumi aya mune zvakanaka. Woodworth ane tarisiro pamusoro pekufanotaura kwegore idzva iri. “Nguva dziri nani dzakaonekwa mumakore maviri kusvika matatu apfuura. Takananga nenzira iyi nhasi. Chii chakanaka nezvehupfumi hwa2? Tichaona mubereko uchidzikira izvo zvinoita kuti mari yechikwereti irambe yakaderera. Dhora risina simba rinoreva kuwedzera kwekufamba kwekufamba (iyo yave ichikwira kubva muna 3); mitengo yepamusoro yezvigadzirwa yakabatsira kumisa kushaikwa kwemabasa kuri kuwedzera uko kwakabatsira kuti mari yevashandi vemuhotera isadzikire.” Uye kunyange hazvo nguva dzaiita kuti zviome kuvakwa kwemahotera, vashoma vane mahotera ndivo vakatokwanisa kuvaka uye kuti zviitwe zvisinei nekuderera kwaita zvinhu, akadaro Woodworth.

Hazvisi zvese zvakanaka. Chii chisina kunaka nezve 2008? Kusava nechokwadi uku kunokanganisa kudiwa; mari yekufambisa inoramba ichikwira; uye kuti nyanzvi dzinotarisira inflation yemakore gumi.

"Tinocherechedza kuwedzera kwemazana kubva pachikamu chechitatu cha100, asi kudiwa kwanga kuri kusaririra kubva muna'2006. Takanga tine makore maviri ekukura kweavhareji muna 06- 2, izvo zvakachinja basa rose - iyo yakanakisa fungidziro yekudiwa kwekugara kweindasitiri," akadaro Woodworth. Akafanonyevera, iyi 2001rd quarter ye03 ichapupurira yakaderera nzvimbo yekukura. Muna 3, kuwanikwa kuchapfuura zvinodiwa; zvisineyi zvinodiwa zvichakwira muna 2008. Kugara kuchange kuri pasi zvishoma pamusoro peavhareji kutanga gore rinouya, asi kukura kwemaRevPARs kuchave kwakanaka muna 2008, akawedzera Woodworth.

Kuti indasitiri ibatsire, chirongwa chekusimudzira chichapinza mari itsva kuhupfumi sezvakaitwa muna 2001- 2002. “Jekiseni re$150 B richabatsira vanhu vekuAmerica panyaya yekushanda kwenguva refu. Kukurudzira kweiyo mari kuchadzora iyo recession psychology. Nekudaro, haisi mushonga-zvese kutenderera kwedzimba, "akadaro Gene Sperling, aimbove White House National Economic Advisor panguva yaimbova Mutungamiri Bill Clinton, uye aimbova director weNational Economic Council. Akawedzera kuti Federal Reserve yakaratidza mumazuva ekupedzisira kuti inogona kuita "ushingi uye nekukasira" mushure mekucheka mapoinzi makumi manomwe neshanu pasi. "MaFed akapa musika chivimbo zvakare. Asi handisi kuona mitengo ichifamba zvakare nekukasira. Mubvunzo chaiwo ndewekuti mareti anogona kusvika papi. Pfungwa yekuomesa mareti epamusoro seyekutanga ichagadzira kukurudzira kwevanhu kuti vaungane pamwechete. Nedhora uye chinzvimbo chemari chisina kusimba sezvazviri, mibvunzo inoramba iripo yekuti Fed inogona kuita zvehasha uye inogona kukurudzira Washington kuti ibatanidze mwero wakachekwa nekukura, "akadaro achigomera, hapana kuchinjika kwakawanda kunze uko.

Sperling akasimbisa kuti nhamba huru yevanhu vaizogara mudzimba dzavo kana vachikwanisa kuva nemakore makumi matatu yakatarwa chiyero pane imwe nhanho inonzwisisika. Foreclosures, yakatarisana munharaunda, yakave nemhedzisiro inotyisa pamitengo yemba kune wese munhu. “Hillary Clinton naGavhuna Arnold Schwarzenegger vakakurudzira kumisa mitero senzira yekugara kwemakore mashoma. Asi vanhu vakawandisa vakanyunyuta. Dambudziko ravepo nderekuti tave kupinda munguva yekuvandudzwa,” akadaro.

Lomanno mapurojekiti ekubhukidza zvichienderana nemareti nekuda kweinternet achaona kupfava. Vati mitengo muna 2008 ichange iri 5.2 percent zvishoma zvishoma kubva muna 2007; zvisinei, chimiro ichi hachizonzwiki mumisika mikuru kana yepamusoro-yekupedzisira tiers. "Kana kupa & kudiwa uye nhamba dzekufungidzira dzeADR dzakarurama, REVPAR ichaona kukura kwe4.4 muzana," akadaro.

“Mutengo wekuchinja wakashata wanga uri shamwari yeindasitiri yemahotera mugore rapfuura. Bookings mhiri kweExpedia uye ADR's yechina kota 4 yaive yakanaka. Kana tikagadzirisa mari inoshandiswa nevanhu vekuCanada kana vekuAustralia vanoshanyira US, vanobhadhara mari shoma mumari yavo yemuno pavanouya kuUS nepo mahotera achiwana zvizere. Isu tinoona semuenzaniso, mhuri yeGerman inopedza Euro 2007 yakawanda kana vauya (hapana kwavari), asi imhepo kune mupi anogashira zvakati wandei," akadaro Paul Brown, purezidhendi weExpedia North America. Akawedzera kuti kuwedzera kwemakumi maviri muzana kwehuwandu hwemhepo uye mari yekufambisa mhepo, misiyano yemitengo yekunze iyo 'yaive isati yave' vanhu vekuAmerica kuenda kunze uye kumanikidza kufamba kwemumba kuti kuwedzere, zvinoumba zvinhu zvakakosha zvinokanganisa kudiwa kwepekugara.

Mitengo yehotera yezvivakwa zveupscale inoramba ichikwira. Brown akati, vatengi vachine maonero ekukosha; ivo vanofambiswa nekutengesa, zvibvumirano uye zvinopihwa. Mahotera muna 2008 achawedzera nguva dzekubhukha nezvikamu zvina kubva muzana nekutengesa-ku-kusimudzira. Vatengi vanogara vachipindura kune zvinopihwa zvekusimudzira. Vatengi, mune ino hupfumi hwakashata, vari kutora mukana weiyo yakaderera mutengo wekutengesa.
"Kana kufanotaura kwedu mukugovera uye kudiwa kuri kwakaringana, vagari vanokura 63.2 muzana muna 2008 kusvika 63.7 muzana muna 2009," akadaro Lomanno.

Woodworth akati: “Kana fungidziro yedu iri yechokwadi, hafu yemisika 50 yepamusoro muUS, ichadzikira gore rino nekuda kwekuwanikwa uye kudiwa kwezvinhu. Muna 2009, kuwanikwa kuchawedzera maringe nezvinodiwa. RevPAR kukura kuchave kwakanaka gore rino. Inflation haizokonzeri matambudziko mumusika wemabasa. Kupfava kwemusika kuchava kwenguva pfupi chete. Mahotera emari yemahotera ari pasi penhoroondo yakaderera uye 2007 iri pazasi pechiyero chechiyero; zvisinei, kuchave nekuwedzera kwe160-bass point kutora musika kusvika pakupera kwemakore gumi. "

Mugore resarudzo, kugovera kuchakura 2.3 muzana yakawanda yezvinodiwa, akadaro Lomanno.
Kutevera mhedzisiro yavo mukati megore resarudzo kubva 1929, apo kugara kwakadzikira, 2/3 yenguva, mumiriri weRepublican akahwina sarudzo. "Apo vagari mugore resarudzo vanodzika pasi peavhareji yenguva refu, 55 muzana yenguva, mumiriri weDemocratic akakunda. Tinotenda kuti tichava neavhareji yekugara kwenguva refu,” akavhara Woodworth.