Ndege dzakasimba

Vanhu vari kuramba vachikwira nendege. Zvisinei, pane vatyairi vendege vakakwana here uye vashandi vendege kuti vabate kutangwazve kuri kutarisirwa kweindasitiri yendege?

International Air Transport Association (IATA) inofunga kudaro. Sangano rendege rine nhengo dzendege pasi rese rakazivisa kukwidziridzwa kumaonero aro ekushanda kwemari yeindasitiri yendege muna 2022.

Izvi zvinouya pamwe chete nekupora kubva kuCOVID-19 dambudziko.

Kufanotaura kweIATA kwakatsanangurwa mukuburitswa kwenhau nhasi:

• Kurasikirwa kwemaindasitiri kunotarisirwa kudzikira kusvika pa $9.7 bhiriyoni (yakagadziridzwa kubva muna Gumiguru 2021 fungidziro yekurasikirwa kwemadhora bhiriyoni gumi nematanhatu) pakurasikirwa kwemari ye -11.6%. Uku ndiko kuvandudzwa kukuru kubva mukurasikirwa kwemadhora zana nemakumi matatu nenomwe emadhora (-1.2% net margin) muna 137.7 uye $36.0 bhiriyoni (-2020% net margin) muna 42.1.
   
• Indasitiri-yakakura pundutso muna 2023 inoratidzika mukati mekusvika neNorth America yakatotarisirwa kuunza purofiti yemadhora mazana masere nesere muna 8.8.
   
• Kubudirira kunowanikwa uye kuvandudza goho kuri kubatsira makambani endege kuderedza kurasikirwa kunyangwe nekukwira kwevashandi nemitengo yemafuta (iyo yekupedzisira inofambiswa nekuwedzera kwe + 40% mumutengo wemafuta epasi rose uye kuparuka kuri kuwedzera kwakapararira gore rino).
   
• Tarisiro yeindasitiri uye kuzvipira mukudzikiswa kwehutsi zvinoonekwa mukuburitswa kwendege dzinopfuura chiuru nemazana maviri muna 1,200.
   
• Kuda kwakasimba kwepent-up, kusimudzwa kwezvirambidzo zvekufamba mumisika mizhinji, kushomeka kwakaderera munyika zhinji, uye kuwedzerwa mari yemunhu kuri kukonzera kutangazve kudiwa kuchaona nhamba dzevafambi dzichisvika 83% ye pre-denda muna 2022.
   
• Pasinei nematambudziko ehupfumi, mavhoriyamu ekutakura anotarisirwa kuseta rekodhi yakakwira matani 68.4 miriyoni muna 2022.

“Ndege dzakasimba. Vanhu vari kuramba vachikwira nendege. Uye zvinhu zvinotakura zvinhu zviri kuita zvakanaka zvichitarisana nekusagadzikana kuri kuwedzera kwehupfumi. Kurasikirwa kuchaderedzwa kusvika pamabhiriyoni mapfumbamwe nemazana manomwe emadhora gore rino uye pundutso yave pedyo muna 9.7. Inguva yetarisiro, kunyangwe pachine matambudziko pamitengo, kunyanya mafuta edzimotokari, uye zvimwe zvirambidzo mumisika mishoma yakakosha,” akadaro Willie. Walsh, Director-General weIATA.

Mihoro iri kuwedzera sezvo COVID-19 zvirambidzo zviri nyore uye vanhu vanodzokera kunofamba. Dambudziko ra2022 nderekuchengeta mitengo iri pasi pesimba.

“Kudzikiswa kwemari inorasikirwa imhaka yekushanda nesimba kuti mitengo irambe iri pasi pesimba sezvo maindasitiri ari kuwedzera. Kuvandudzwa kwemaonero emari kunobva pakubata mari kusvika pakuwedzera kwe44% ukuwo mihoro yakawedzera 55%. Sezvo indasitiri inodzokera kune yakajairika mazinga ekugadzirwa uye nemutengo wakakwira wemafuta ungangogara kwechinguva, pundutso inobva pakuenderera mberi kwekudzora mutengo. Uye izvo zvinosanganisira kukosha kweketani. Vatengesi vedu, kusanganisira nhandare dzendege uye vanopa masevhisi ekufambisa kwendege, vanofanirwa kutarisisa kudzora mitengo sevatengi vavo kutsigira kupora kweindasitiri,” akadaro Walsh.

Mari yeindasitiri inotarisirwa kusvika pamadhora mazana manomwe nemakumi masere nemaviri emadhora (+ 782% pa54.5), 2021% yemazinga e93.3. Ndege dzakashandiswa muna 2019 dzinotarisirwa kuita 2022 miriyoni, inova 33.8% ye86.9 mazinga (2019 miriyoni ndege).

• Mari dzevapfuuri inotarisirwa kuverengera mabhiriyoni mazana mana nemakumi mapfumbamwe emadhora emari inowanikwa mumaindasitiri, inodarika zvakapetwa kaviri mabhiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi matatu nemakumi mapfumbamwe emadhora akagadzirwa muna 498. Nhamba dzevatakuri dzakarongwa dzinotarisirwa kusvika 239 bhiriyoni, nemari yemakiromita (RPKs) inokura 2021% zvichienzaniswa ne3.8, inosvika 97.6% ye2021. traffic. Sezvo pent-up inoda ichiburitswa nekurerutsirwa kwezvirambidzo zvekufamba, goho rinotarisirwa kukwira ne82.4%. Izvi zvinotevera kushanduka kwegoho kwe -2019% muna 5.6 uye + 9.1% muna 2020.
   
• Mari yemitero inotarisirwa kuverengera $191 bhiriyoni yemari yeindasitiri. Izvo zvakaderera zvishoma kubva ku204 bhiriyoni yemadhora yakanyorwa muna 2021, asi ingangoita kaviri mabhiriyoni zana emadhora akawanikwa muna 100. Pakazara, indasitiri inotarisirwa kutakura matani anopfuura mamirioni makumi matanhatu nemasere ekutakura mu2019, inova rekodhi yakakwira. Sezvo nzvimbo yekutengeserana ichipfava zvishoma, goho remutoro rinotarisirwa kudonha ne68% zvichienzaniswa ne2022. Izvo zvinongodzosera zvishoma kuwedzera kwegoho re10.4% muna 2021 uye 52.5% muna 2020.

Mari yese inotarisirwa kukwira kusvika pamadhora mazana manomwe nemakumi mapfumbamwe nematanhatu. Uku ndiko kuwedzera kwe796% muna 44, kunoratidza zvese mutengo wekutsigira mashandiro makuru uye mutengo wekukwira kwemitengo mune zvimwe zvinhu zvakakosha.

• mafuta: Pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mapfumbamwe emadhora, mafuta emafuta ndiwo akanyanya mutengo weindasitiri muna 192 (2022% yemitengo yese, kubva pa24% muna 19). Izvi zvinobva pamutengo unotarisirwa weavhareji weBrent crude we$2021/barrel uye $101.2 yejet parafini. Ndege dzinotarisirwa kushandisa 125.5billion marita emafuta muna 321 zvichienzaniswa ne2022 bhiriyoni marita akashandiswa muna 359.
  
  Hondo muUkraine iri kuchengetedza mitengo yeBrent crude oil yakakwira. Zvakadaro, mafuta achaita mari inosvika chikamu chimwe muzvina chemitengo muna 2022. Chimwe chinhu chemusika wemafuta egore rino ndiko kupararira kwakanyanya pakati pemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena uye jet. Uku kupararira kwejeti kutsemuka kunoramba kuri pamusoro pezvimiro zvenhoroondo, zvakanyanya nekuda kwezvimhingamipinyi zvehunyanzvi munzvimbo dzinocheneswa. Kusadyarwa kwemari munzvimbo iyi kunogona kureva kuti kupararira kunoramba kuchikwidziridzwa kusvika muna 2023. Panguva imwecheteyo, mitengo yakakwirira yemafuta nemafuta inogona kuona ndege dzichivandudza kushandiswa kwemafuta-zvose kuburikidza nekushandiswa kwendege inoshanda uye kuburikidza nezvisarudzo zvekushanda.
   
• Basa: Basa ndiro rechipiri-pamusoro-soro rekushandisa mutengo wendege. Basa rakananga mubazi rinotarisirwa kusvika 2.7 miriyoni, kukwira 4.3% muna 2021 sezvo indasitiri inovaka patsva kubva mukuderera kukuru kwekuita muna 2020. Basa richiri, zvisinei, zvishoma pasi pemabasa 2.93 miriyoni muna 2019 uye rinotarisirwa kuramba riri pazasi. iyi level kwenguva yakati. Mutengo wevashandi unotarisirwa kunge uri 12.2 cents/inowanikwa tonne kilometer (ATK) muna 2022, inova yatodzokera kumatanho a2019 apo yaive 12.3 cents/ATK.
  
  Nguva inodiwa yekutsvaga, kudzidzisa, kupedzisa kuchengetedza / kutarisa kumashure, uye kuita mamwe maitiro anodiwa vashandi vasati "vagadzirira basa" iri kupa dambudziko kune indasitiri muna 2022. Mune zvimwe zviitiko, kunonoka kwebasa kunogona kuita sechinhu chinomanikidza kukwanisa kwendege kuzadzisa zvinodiwa nevatyairi.
  
  Munyika umo kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi kubva padenda kwave kukurumidza uye huwandu hwekushaikwa hwakaderera, misika yevashandi yakaoma uye kushomeka kwehunyanzvi kungangokonzera kukwira kwemuhoro. Mari yemuhoro yeindasitiri inotarisirwa kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi manomwe nemakumi matatu emadhora muna 173, ichikwira 2022% muna 7.9, uye isingaenderane nekuwedzera kwe2021% kwemabasa ese.

Macro-Economic Factors

Iyo yepasi rose macroeconomic backdrop yakakosha kune iyo indasitiri maonero. Kufembera uku kunosanganisira fungidziro yekukura kwakasimba kweGDP yepasirese kwe3.4% muna 2022, zvichidzika kubva kune yakasimba 5.8% rebound gore rapfuura. Inflation yakakwira uye inotarisirwa kuramba yakasimudzwa muna 2022 yose, ichiderera mukati megore ra2023. Uye, kunyange zvazvo mibairo yezita iri kukwira, mibairo chaiyo inotarisirwa kuramba yakaderera kana kuti isina kunaka kwenguva yakareba.

Risk Factors

Pane huwandu hwengozi dzengozi dzinoenderana nemaonero aya.

Hondo muUkraine

Mhedzisiro yehondo muUkraine pakubhururuka kwendege haina kujeka kana ichienzaniswa nenjodzi yekubatsira vanhu. Maonero anofungidzira kuti hondo muUkraine haizokwira kupfuura miganhu yayo. Pakati pezvakawanda zvakaipa zvinokonzeresa kukwira kwendege, kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta uye kushomeka kuri kuita nekuda kwekudzikiswa kwemaonero evatengi ndiko kungave kwakakosha.

• Mutakuri: Yakasanganiswa, misika yepasi rose yeRussia, Ukraine, Belarus, neMoldova yakaverengera 2.3% yetraffic yepasirese muna 2021. Pamusoro pezvo, inenge 7% yepasi rose traffic traffic (RPK) yaizowanzo pfuura Russian airspace (2021 data), iyo ikozvino yakavharirwa kune vakawanda vanoshanda, kunyanya munzira dzekufamba-famba pakati peAsia neEurope kana North America. Kune mitengo yakakwira zvakanyanya yekudzosera nzira kune avo vatakuri vakakanganisika.
   
• kago: Ingori pasi pe1% yepasi rose kutakura zvinhu zvakatanga kana kuti zvinofambiswa kuburikidza neRussia neUkraine. Iko kukanganiswa kukuru kuri munzvimbo yakasarudzika yehuremu-huremu kutakura uko Russia neUkraine ndivo vatungamiriri vemusika, uye inoenderana nekurasikirwa kwehuwandu kuchanetsa kutsiva. Uye inenge 19% yekutakura zvinhu zvepasi rose (CTKs) inofamba neRussia airspace (2021 data). Vatakuri vakakanganiswa nezvirango vanotarisana nemitengo yakakwira yekudzosera nzira.

Inflation, Mari dzeMbereko, uye Chiyero chekuchinjana

Mari dzemhindu dziri kukwira sezvo mabhanga makuru ari kurwisa inflation. Kunze kweavo vakatakura chikwereti (avo vachaona inflation ichideredza zvikwereti zvavo), inflation inokuvadza uye ine hupfumi hwekuderedza mhedzisiro yemutero nekuderedza simba rekutenga. Pane dambudziko rekushomeka kwemaonero aya kana inflation ikaramba ichikwira, uye mabhanga epakati achiramba achikwidza mubereko.

Uyezve, iyo rekodhi simba remadhora eUS, kana ikaramba ichienderera, ichava nemhedzisiro yakaipa sezvo yakasimba US dhora iri kukura kuderera mune zvese. Inowedzera mutengo wemari-yemuno wechikwereti cheUSD-denominated uye inowedzera kumutoro wekubhadhara kuUSD-denominated fuel imports zvakare.

Covid-19

Chinodiwa chekufamba chakasimba. Asi mhinduro dzehurumende kuCOVID-19 dzakafuratira zano reWorld Health Organisation rekuti kuvharwa kwemuganho haisi nzira inoshanda yekudzora kupararira kwehutachiona. Maonero anofungidzira kuti kwakasimba uye kuri kukura kusadzivirirwa kwevanhu kuCCIDID-19 zvinoreva kuti hakuzove nekudzokororwa kwezvikanganiso izvi. Pane, zvisinei, njodzi yakaderera kana hurumende ikadzokera kumabvi-jerk-kuvhara muganho mhinduro kune kubuda kunotevera.

“Hurumende dzinofanirwa kunge dzakadzidza zvidzidzo kubva kuCOVID-19 dambudziko. Kuvharwa kwebhodha kunounza kurwadziwa kwehupfumi asi kunoburitsa zvishoma maererano nekudzora kupararira kwehutachiona. Nemazinga akakwira ekusadzivirirwa kwevanhu, nzira dzepamusoro dzekurapa, uye maitiro ekutarisa, njodzi dzeCOVID-19 dzinogona kudzorwa. Parizvino, hapana mamiriro ezvinhu apo mitengo yevanhu nehupfumi yekuwedzera kuvharwa kwemuganho weCCIDID-19 inogona kururamiswa, "akadaro Walsh.

China

Musika wepamusha weChina wega wakaverengera chikamu gumi muzana chetraffic yepasi rose muna 10. Maonero aya anotora kudzoreredzwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwezvirango zveCCIDID-2019 muhafu yechipiri ya19. Kumboenda kure neChina zero COVID policy, hongu, kwaizovandudza maonero. zveindasitiri. Kuitwa kwenguva refu kwechirongwa cheCCIDID-2022 kucharamba kuchidzvinyirira musika wechipiri mukurusa wepasi rose uye kukanganisa macheni epasi rose.

3. Dunhu Round-Up

Kuita kwemari mumatunhu ese kunotarisirwa kuvandudzwa muna 2022 zvichienzaniswa ne2021 (matunhu ese akavandudzwa muna 2021 zvichienzaniswa ne2020 futi).

North America inotarisirwa kuramba iri iyo yakasimba kuita dunhu uye ndiyo yega nharaunda inodzokera kune purofiti muna 2022. Inotsigirwa nemusika mukuru weUS wepamba uye kuvhurwazve kwemisika yepasirese, kusanganisira North Atlantic, purofiti inofungidzirwa kuva. $8.8 bhiriyoni muna 2022. Demand (RPKs) inotarisirwa kusvika 95.0% yepre-crisis (2019) mazinga, uye kukwanisa 99.5%.

Europe: MuEurope, hondo yeRussia-Ukraine icharamba ichikanganisa mafambiro ekufamba mukati meEurope uye pakati peEurope neAsia-Pacific. Nekudaro, iyo hondo haitarisirwe kukanganisa kudzoreredza kwekufamba, nedunhu richiswedera pedyo nepurofiti muna 2022, nekurasikirwa kwemari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matatu nemazana mapfumbamwe emadhora. Demand (RPKs) inotarisirwa kusvika 3.9% yepre-dambudziko (82.7) mazinga, uye kugona 2019%.

Kune ndege dzeAsia-Pacific, zvirambidzo zvakasimba uye zvinoshingirira zvekufamba (kunyanya kuChina), pamwe nekuburitswa kwekudzivirira kwekudzivirira, vakaona dunhu richiderera mukupora kusvika parizvino. Sezvo zvirambidzo zvadzikira, kudiwa kwekufamba kunotarisirwa kuwedzera nekukurumidza. Kurasikirwa kweNet muna 2022 kunofungidzirwa kuderera kusvika pamadhora 8.9 bhiriyoni. Demand (RPKs) inotarisirwa kusvika 73.7% yepre-dambudziko (2019) mazinga, uye huwandu pa81.5%.

Mavhoriyamu emigwagwa muLatin America akapora zvakanyanya muna 2021, achitsigirwa nemisika yemumba uye kushomeka kwezvirambidzo zvekufamba munyika zhinji. Maonero emari emamwe makambani endege, zvisinei, anoramba asina kusimba uye dunhu rinotarisirwa kunyora kurasikirwa kwemabhiriyoni mazana matatu emadhora gore rino. Demand (RPKs) inotarisirwa kusvika 3.2% yepre-crisis (94.2) mazinga, uye huwandu pa2019%.KuMiddle East, gore rino kuvhurwazve kwenzira dzepasi rose uye nendege dzenguva refu, kunyanya, dzichapa mukana. kugamuchira kukurudzira kune vakawanda. Dunhu rose, kurasikirwa kwemari kunotarisirwa kudzikira kusvika pamadhora bhiriyoni 93.2 muna 1.9, kubva pakurasikirwa kwemadhora mabhiriyoni mana nemazana manomwe gore rapfuura. Demand (RPKs) inotarisirwa kusvika 2022% yepre-dambudziko (4.7) mazinga, uye huwandu pa79.1%.

In Africa, mwero wakaderera wejekiseni wakaderedza kupora kwekufamba nendege munharaunda kusvika nhasi. Zvakadaro, zvimwe zvingangobata gore rino, izvo zvichabatsira mukuvandudza mashandiro emari. Kurasikirwa kweNet kunofungidzirwa kuve $ 0.7 bhiriyoni muna 2022. Demand (RPKs) inotarisirwa kusvika 72.0% ye pre-crisis (2019) mazinga, uye kugona 75.2%.