International Air Transport Association (IATA) inotarisira kudzoka kune pundutso kuindasitiri yendege yepasi rose muna 2023 sezvo ndege dziri kuramba dzichicheka kurasikirwa kunobva mumhedzisiro yeCOVID-19 denda kubhizinesi ravo muna 2022.
- Muna 2023, makambani endege anotarisirwa kutumira mari shoma yemadhora mazana mana nemazana manomwe emadhora — 4.7% net profit margin. Ndiyo yekutanga purofiti kubvira 0.6 apo indasitiri yakawana purofiti yaive $2019 bhiriyoni (26.4% net profit margin).
- Muna 2022, kurasikirwa kwendege kunotarisirwa kuita madhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi mapfumbamwe emadhora (kuvandudzwa kwekurasikirwa kwemadhora mabhiriyoni mazana mapfumbamwe nemazana manomwe emadhora muna 6.9 mumaonero eIATA muna Chikumi). Izvi zvirinani zvakanyanya kudarika kurasikirwa kwemadhora mazana mana nemakumi mana emadhora uye madhora mazana mana nemakumi matatu nenomwe emadhora zvakaonekwa muna 9.7 na2022 zvichiteerana.
"Kusimba kwave kuri chiratidzo chendege mudambudziko reCOVID-19. Sezvatinotarisa kuna 2023, kudzoreredza kwemari kuchaitika nekutanga purofiti yeindasitiri kubva 2019. Ndiko kubudirira kukuru tichitarisa kukura kwekuparara kwemari nehupfumi kwakakonzerwa nehurumende yakatemerwa zvirango zvedenda. Asi purofiti inosvika mabhiriyoni mana nemazana manomwe emadhora pamari inowanikwa mumaindasitiri inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana manomwe nenomwe nemazana mapfumbamwe emadhora inoratidzawo kuti pane zvakawanda zvekuvhara kuisa indasitiri yepasi rose padanho rakasimba remari. Ndege dzakawanda dzinoita mari yakakwana kukwezva capital inodiwa kufambisa indasitiri kumberi sezvo ichibvisa carbon. Asi vamwe vakawanda vari kunetseka nezvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana. Izvi zvinosanganisira mutemo wakaoma, kudhura kwakanyanya, kusapindirana kwemitemo yehurumende, zvivakwa zvisina basa uye kukosha uko mibairo yekubatanidza pasirese isingagovaniswe zvakaenzana," akadaro Willie Walsh. Iată'' Director General.
2022
Tarisiro dzakavandudzwa dzegore ra2022 dzinobva zvakanyanya kubva mukusimbaradzwa kwegoho uye nekudzora mitengo kwakasimba pamberi pekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta.
Goho revatasvi vanotarisirwa kukura ne8.4% (kubva pa5.6% inotarisirwa muna Chikumi). Kufambiswa nesimba irori, mari yevatyairi inotarisirwa kukura kusvika pamadhora mazana mana nemakumi matatu nemasere emadhora (kubva pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matatu nemapfumbamwe emadhora muna 438).
Mari yekutakura zvinhu zvemumhepo yakaita basa rakakosha mukucheka kurasikirwa nemari inotarisirwa kusvika madhora mazana maviri nemazana mana emadhora. Uku ndiko kuvandudzwa kana kuenzaniswa nefungidziro yaJune, haina kushanduka kubva muna 201.4, uye inodarika kaviri mabhiriyoni zana emadhora akawanikwa muna 2021.
Yakazara mari inotarisirwa kukura ne43.6% zvichienzaniswa ne2021, inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana manomwe nemakumi maviri nenomwe emadhora.
Zvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda zvakavapo nenzira yakaipa zvichitevera kudzikira kwetarisiro yekukura kweGDP (kubva pa3.4% munaChikumi kusvika 2.9%), uye kunonoka kubvisa zvirango zveCCIDID-19 mumisika yakati wandei, kunyanya China. Kufembera kweIATA kwaChikumi kwaifungidzira kuti traffic yevafambi ichasvika 82.4% ye pre-dambudziko mazinga muna 2022, asi zvave kuita kunge indasitiri inoda kudzoreredzwa ichasvika 70.6% ye pre-dambudziko. Cargo, kune rumwe rutivi, yaitarisirwa kudarika mazinga e2019 ne11.7%, asi izvo zvino zvave kuita kuti zvigadziriswe kusvika 98.4% ye2019 mazinga.
Padivi remutengo, mitengo yeparafini yejeti inotarisirwa kuenzana $138.8/barrel kwegore, yakakwira zvakanyanya kudarika $125.5/barrel inotarisirwa munaJune. Izvi zvinoratidza mitengo yemafuta yakakwira yakawedzeredzwa nejet crack kupararira iri pamusoro peavhareji yenhoroondo. Kunyangwe nekushomeka kwakaderera kunotungamira mukuderedzwa kwekushandisa, izvi zvakasimudza bhiri remafuta eindasitiri kusvika kumadhora mazana maviri nemakumi maviri nemaviri emadhora (pamusoro pemadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mapfumbamwe emadhora anotarisirwa muna Chikumi).
"Kuti ndege dzendege dzakakwanisa kuderedza kurasikirwa kwadzo muna 2022, pamberi pekukwira kwemitengo, kushomeka kwevashandi, kurohwa, kukanganisa kwekushanda munzvimbo dzakawanda dzakakosha uye kusagadzikana kwehupfumi kunotaura zvakanyanya nezvechishuwo chevanhu uye kuda kwekubatana. Nemamwe misika yakakosha senge China ichichengeta zvirambidzo kwenguva yakareba kupfuura zvanga zvichitarisirwa, nhamba dzevatyairi dzakadzikira pane tarisiro. Tichapedza gore panenge 70% ye2019 mavhoriyamu evafambi. Asi nekuvandudzwa kwegoho mumabhizinesi ekutakura uye evafambi, ndege dzichasvika padanho rekuita pundutso, "akadaro Walsh.
2023
Muna 2023 indasitiri yendege inotarisirwa kupinda mupurofiti. Ndege dziri kutarisirwa kuwana purofiti yepasi rose yemadhora mazana mana nemazana manomwe emadhora pamari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana manomwe nemakumi manomwe nepfumbamwe (4.7% net margin). Kuvandudzika kuri kutarisirwa uku kunouya kunyangwe kuri kukura kusagadzikana kwehupfumi sezvo kukura kweGDP kuchidzika kusvika 779% (kubva pa0.6% muna 1.3).
“Pasinei nekusagadzikana kwehupfumi, pane zvikonzero zvakawanda zvekuva netariro nezve 2023. Kuderera kwemutengo wemafuta emafuta uye kuenderera mberi kudiwa kunofanirwa kubatsira kuchengetedza mutengo sezvo kukura kwakasimba kuri kuramba kuchienderera. Panguva imwecheteyo, nemiganhu yakatetepa yakadaro, kunyange kuchinja kusingakoshi mune chero ipi zvayo yezvipembenene izvi kune simba rekushandura chiyero munzvimbo isina kunaka. Kusvinura uye kuchinjika zvichave zvakakosha, "akadaro Walsh.
Main Drivers
Mutakuri: Bhizinesi revatakuri rinotarisirwa kuunza mari ye522 bhiriyoni. Kudiwa kwevatasvi kunotarisirwa kusvika pa85.5% yemazinga a2019 mukati megore ra2023. Zvakawanda zvetarisiro iyi zvinofunga nezvekusagadzikana kwemitemo yeChina yeZero COVID iyo iri kumanikidza misika yemumba neyekunze. Zvakangodaro, nhamba dzevatakuri dzinotarisirwa kudarika mabhiriyoni mana kekutanga kubva 2019, nevafambi 4.2 bhiriyoni vanotarisirwa kubhururuka. Zvisinei, goho rinotarisirwa kupfava (-1.7%) sezvo mari yemagetsi yakadzikira ichipfuudzwa kumutengi, kunyangwe kudiwa kwevatakuri kuri kukura nekukurumidza (+ 21.1%) kupfuura huwandu hwevatyairi (+ 18.0%).
kago: Misika yekutakura inotarisirwa kuuya pasi pekumanikidzwa kwakawedzera muna 2023. Mari inotarisirwa kuva $ 149.4 bhiriyoni, iyo iri $ 52 bhiriyoni isingasviki 2022 asi ichiri $ 48.6 bhiriyoni yakasimba kupfuura 2019. Nekusagadzikana kwehupfumi, mavhoriyamu ekutakura anotarisirwa kuderera kusvika 57.7 miriyoni matani , kubva pakukwirira kwematani mamiriyoni 65.6 muna 2021. Sezvo simba redumbu rinokura maererano nekudzorerwa mumisika yevatengesi, zvibereko zvinotarisirwa kutora danho rinokosha shure. IATA inotarisira kudonha kwe22.6% mugoho rekutakura, kunyanya muchikamu chekupedzisira chegore apo kukanganiswa kwematanho ekutonhora-kutonhora kunotarisirwa kuruma. Kuisa kuderera kwegoho mumamiriro ezvinhu, goho remutoro rakakura ne52.5% muna 2020, 24.2% muna 2021 uye 7.2% muna 2022. Kunyangwe kuderera kwakanyanya uye kunotarisirwa kunosiya goho remutoro riri pamusoro-soro pre-COVID mazinga.
mari: Mari yese inotarisirwa kukura ne5.3% kusvika ku776 bhiriyoni. Iko kukura kunotarisirwa kuve 1.8 muzana mapoinzi pasi pekukura kwemari, nekudaro ichitsigira kudzokera kune purofiti. Madzvinyiriro emitengo achiripo kubva kuvashandi, hunyanzvi uye kushomeka kwehunyanzvi. Mari yezvivakwa inonetsawo.
Zvakangodaro, mari isiri yemafuta emagetsi inotarisirwa kudzika kusvika pamakumi matatu nemasere masendi/inowanikwa tani kiromita (kudzika kubva pa39.8 cents/ATK muna 41.7 uye ingada kufanana ne2022 cents/ATK yakawanikwa muna 39.2). Kubudirira kwendege kunotarisirwa kutyaira zvinhu zvinotakura vanhu kusvika pa2019%, zvishoma pazasi pe81.0% yakawanikwa muna 82.6.
Mafuta ese anoshandiswa muna 2023 anotarisirwa kuve $229 bhiriyoni-anoenderana ne30% yemari. Kufembera kweIATA kwakavakirwa paBrent crude pamadhora makumi mapfumbamwe neshanu / mbiya (pasi kubva paavhareji yemadhora zana nemakumi maviri / mbiya muna 92.3). Jet parafini inotarisirwa kuenzana $103.2/barrel (pasi kubva $2022/barrel). Kudzikira uku kunoratidza kudzikama kwekupihwa kwemafuta mushure mekuvhiringidzwa kwekutanga kubva kuhondo muUkraine. Iyo premium inobhadhariswa mafuta ejet (crack spread) inoramba iri padyo nenhoroondo yakakwirira.
ngozi: Iyo hupfumi uye geopolitical nharaunda inopa akati wandei njodzi dzinogona kuitika kune 2023 maonero.
- Kunyange zviratidzo zvichiratidza kuti panogona kunge paine kudzikiswa kwehukasha-kurwisa inflation kukwira kubva kutanga kwa2023, njodzi yehumwe hupfumi huchiwira mukuderera inoramba iripo. Kudzikira kwakadaro kunogona kukanganisa kudiwa kwevose vatyairi nevanotakura zvinhu. Izvo, zvakadaro, zvingangouya nekumwe kudzikiswa nenzira yemitengo yakaderera yemafuta.
- Maonero anotarisira kuvhurwa zvishoma nezvishoma kweChina kune traffic dzepasi rose uye kurerutswa kwezvirango zveCCIDID-19 zvishoma nezvishoma kubva muhafu yechipiri ya2023.
- Kana zvikaitwa, zvikumbiro zvekuwedzera machaji ezvivakwa kana mutero kutsigira kuedza kwekusimudzira zvinogona zvakare kudya pundutso muna 2023.
"Basa revatariri vendege richaramba rakanetsa sezvo kunyatsotarisa kusagadzikana kwehupfumi kuchave kwakaoma. Nhau dzakanaka ndedzekuti ndege dzakavaka shanduko mumhando dzebhizinesi ravo kuti dzikwanise kubata kukwirisa kwehupfumi uye kudzikisira kunokanganisa kudiwa. Kubatsira kwendege kwakatetepa. Mumwe nemumwe akatakurwa anotarisirwa kupa paavhareji $1.11 chete kune purofiti yeindasitiri. Munzvimbo zhinji dzenyika ishoma pane inodiwa kutenga kapu yekofi. Ndege dzinofanirwa kuramba dzakangwarira kune chero kuwedzera kwemitero kana mari yezvivakwa. Uye isu tichafanirwa kunyanya kungwarira kune avo vakagadzirwa muzita rekusimudzira. Chisungo chedu ndechekupa zero CO2 emissions panosvika 2050. Tichada zvese zvatingakwanise kuwana, kusanganisira kurudziro yehurumende, kuti tipe mari yekuchinja kukuru uku. Mitero yakawanda uye machaji epamusoro angave asingabudiriri, "akadaro Walsh.
Regional Round Up
Mafambisirwo emari ematunhu ese arikuramba achiwedzera kubva pakadzama kurasikirwa nedenda rakaonekwa muna 2020. North America ndiyo yega dunhu rakadzokera pakuita pundutso muna 2022, zvichienderana nefungidziro yedu. Matunhu maviri achabatana neNorth America mune izvi muna 2023: Europe neMiddle East, nepo Latin America, Africa, neAsia-Pacific zvicharamba zviri mutsvuku.
Vatakuri vekuNorth America vanotarisirwa kuona purofiti ye9.9 bhiriyoni muna 2022 uye $11.4 bhiriyoni muna 2023. Muna 2023, kukura kwekuda kwevatyairi kwe6.4% kunotarisirwa kudarika kukura kwe5.5%. Mugore, dunhu rinotarisirwa kushandira 97.2% yepre-dambudziko rekuda mazinga ne98.9% yepre-dambudziko rekuita.
Vatakuri mudunhu vakabatsirwa kubva kune zvishoma uye zvipfupi-zvisingaperi zvirambidzo zvekufamba kupfuura dzimwe nyika zhinji nematunhu. Izvi zvakasimudzira musika mukuru weUS wepamba, pamwe nekufamba kwenyika, kunyanya mhiri kweAtlantic.
Vatakuri veEuropean vanotarisirwa kuona kurasikirwa kwe3.1 bhiriyoni muna 2022, uye purofiti ye621 miriyoni emadhora muna 2023. Muna 2023, kukura kwekudiwa kwevatyairi kwe8.9% kunotarisirwa kupfuura kukura kwe6.1%. Mugore, dunhu rinotarisirwa kushandira 88.7% ye pre-dambudziko rekuda mazinga ne 89.1% yepre-dambudziko kugona.
Hondo muUkraine yakadzora mabasa evamwe vatakuri vedunhu. Kuvhiringwa kwemabasa mudzimwe nzvimbo dzekondinendi kuri kugadziriswa, asi mhirizhonga yevashandi iri kuenderera mberi munzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana.
Asia-Pacific vatakuri vanotarisirwa kutumira kurasikirwa kwe $ 10.0 bhiriyoni muna 2022, zvichidzika kusvika ku $ 6.6 bhiriyoni kurasikirwa muna 2023. Muna 2023, kukura kwekudiwa kwevatakuri kwe59.8% kunotarisirwa kudarika kukura kwehuwandu hwe47.8%. Mugore, dunhu rinotarisirwa kushandira 70.8% yepre-dambudziko rekuda mazinga ne75.5% yepre-dambudziko rekuita.
Asia-Pacific yakadzorwa zvakanyanya nekukanganisa kweChina zero COVID marongero pakufamba uye kurasikirwa kwedunhu kunonyanya kukanganiswa nekuita kwendege dzeChina dzinotarisana nekuzara kwemutemo uyu mumisika yemumba neyekunze. Tichitora maonero ekurerutsira kwezvirambidzo muChina mukati mehafu yechipiri ya2023, isu zvakadaro tinotarisira kudiwa kwakasimba kwepent-up kuti kuwedzere kukurumidza kudzokororwa mushure mekufamba kwakadai. Kuita kwedunhu kunowana kukwidziridzwa kwakakosha kubva kumisika ine pundutso yekutakura zvinhu zvemhepo, mairi ari mutambi mukuru.
Middle East vatakuri vanotarisirwa kutumira kurasikirwa kwe1.1 bhiriyoni muna 2022, uye purofiti ye268 miriyoni muna 2023. Muna 2023, kukura kwekuda kwevatyairi kwe23.4% kunotarisirwa kupfuudza kukura kwe21.2%. Mugore, dunhu rinotarisirwa kushandira 97.8% yepre-dambudziko rekuda mazinga ne94.5% yepre-dambudziko rekuita.
Dunhu iri rakabatsirikana kubva kune imwe dhigirii re-kudzokororwa kwakakonzerwa nehondo muUkraine, uye zvakanyanya kudaro kubva kune pent-up yekufambisa kudiwa uchishandisa dunhu rakakura repasi rose sezvo misika yekufamba kwenyika yakavhurwa zvakare.
Vatakuri veLatin America vanotarisirwa kutumira kurasikirwa kwe2.0 bhiriyoni muna 2022, zvichidzika kusvika $795 miriyoni muna 2023. Muna 2023, kukura kwekuda kwevatyairi kwe9.3% kunotarisirwa kudarika kukura kwehuwandu hwe6.3%. Mugore, dunhu rinotarisirwa kushandira 95.6% yepre-dambudziko rekuda mazinga ne94.2% yepre-dambudziko rekuita.
Latin America yakaratidza kufara mukati megore, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekuti nyika zhinji dzakatanga kusimudza COVID-19 zvirambidzo zvekufamba kubva pakati pegore.
Vatakuri vemuAfrica vanotarisirwa kutumira kurasikirwa kwemamiriyoni mazana matanhatu nemakumi matatu nemasere emadhora muna 638, zvichidzika kusvika pakurasikirwa kwemamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi matatu nemakumi matatu emadhora muna 2022. Kukura kwekuda kwevatyairi kwe213% kunotarisirwa kukurira kukura kwe2023%. Mugore, dunhu rinotarisirwa kushandira 27.4% yepre-dambudziko rekuda mazinga ne21.9% yepre-dambudziko rekuita.
Africa inonyanya kuvhenekwa kumhepo huru-yehupfumi iyo yakawedzera kusagadzikana kwehupfumi hwakawanda uye kupa kubatana kwakaoma.
Bottom Line
“Mhinduro inotarisirwa muna 2023 irezo nhete. Asi zvakakosha zvikuru kuti isu tashandura kona kuita pundutso. Matambudziko achasangana nendege muna 2023, achiri akaoma, achawira munzvimbo dzedu dzechiitiko. Indasitiri yakavaka kugona kukuru kugadzirisa kushanduka kwehupfumi, zvinhu zvikuru zvinodhura semitengo yemafuta, uye zvido zvevatyairi. Tinoona izvi zvichiratidzwa mumakore gumi ekusimbaradza pundutso zvichitevera 2008 Global Financial Crisis uye kupera nedenda. Uye zvinokurudzira, kune mabasa akawanda uye ruzhinji rwevanhu vane chivimbo chekufamba kunyangwe nemaonero asina chokwadi ehupfumi, "akadaro Walsh.
Vafambi vari kutora mukana wekudzoka kwerusununguko rwavo rwekufamba. Ongororo ichangoburwa yeIATA yevafambi mumisika gumi neimwe yepasi rose yakaratidza kuti vangangosvika makumi manomwe muzana vari kufamba zvakanyanya kana kupfuura kupfuura zvavaiita denda risati rasvika. Uye, nepo mamiriro ehupfumi ari maererano ne11% yevafambi, 70% havana chinangwa chekumisa maitiro avo ekufamba.
Chidzidzo chimwechete chakaratidzawo basa rakakosha iro vafambi vanoona indasitiri yendege ichitamba:
- 91% vakati kubatana nemhepo kwakakosha kuhupfumi
- 90% vakati kufamba nendege chinhu chinodiwa pakurarama kwemazuva ano
- 87% vakati kufamba nendege kune maitiro akanaka munharaunda, uye
- Pakati pe57% vanoziva UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 91% vanonzwisisa kuti kutakurwa kwemhepo ndiko kunobatsira zvikuru.
