Kurwisa iyo yekufambisa neyekushanya indasitiri ndiyo modus operandi neanenge ese mapoka anotyisa munyika. Tourism indasitiri isina kusimba uye ichirwisa zvivakwa zvekushanya zvinogona kurasikirwa zvakanyanya nehupfumi, uye chiri chiratidzo chePR kune ese countr.y, maererano neUS yakavakirwa pakufamba uye neboka revanoona nezvekuchengetedza kwekushanya Certified.kufamba
Al-Shabaab yareva mutoro we kutyisa kwekutyisa muNairobi mune vanhu vazhinji vakaurayiwa nekukuvara. Mubvunzo urwi hwekutyisa unomutsa ndosaka boka iri richienderera kunanga Kenya. Iyo Conversation Africa's Moina Spooner naJulius Maina vakataura naBrendon Cannon naMartin Plaut.
Chii chinonzi Al-Shabaab?
Brendon Cannon: Al-Shabaab iboka revapanduki reIslam rakaumbwa muSomalia mumakore gumi ekutanga ezana rino ramakore. Hutungamiri hwayo hwepakutanga hwaive kushamwaridzana naAl-Qaeda, vadzidziswa nekurwa muAfghanistan.
Al-Shabaab pakutanga yakazvipira kubvisa simba rekunze kubva kuSomalia uye kuunza fomu yakaoma yekutonga kweIslam munyika. Pakukwirira kwesimba rayo, kumativi 2008-2010, yaidzora guta guru, Mogadishu, uye nharaunda yakakura kumaodzanyemba nekumadokero kweguta guru, kusanganisira zviteshi zveMerca neKismayo.
Pakutanga, al-Shabaab a kurongeka kwakarongeka uye imwe, kuti kunyangwe paine misiyano yepfungwa uye nehunyanzvi, yakabatanidzwa zvakanyanya pasi paAhmed Abdi Godane aka Mukhtar Abu Zubair, mutungamiri weboka paakarwisa Westgate mu2013.
Mushure mekufa kwake muna 2014, al-Shabaab inonzi yakakamurwa. Izvi zvinogona kutsanangura zvishoma chikamu chemapatya eboka reatomised ekurwiswa kweSomalia neKenya. Izvi zvinoreva kuti, varwi veKenya vakadzidziswa uye vakasununguka kudyidzana neal-Shabaab vanoita kunge ndivo vanokonzeresa kumwe kurwisa kwakaitwa muKenya, kunyanya kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva kwenyika.
Ndeipi chinangwa chayo chekurwisa Kenya?
Brendon Cannon: Boka rakatanga kurwisa zvinangwa kunze kweSomalia muna 2007. Kurwisa kwayo kwekutanga pavhu reKenya kwaive muna 2008. Hurumende yeKenya yakapindura nechisimba. Muna 2011, kusvika “Chengetedza kuchengetedzeka kwenyika”Mauto ekudzivirira emunyika akapinda maodzanyemba eSomalia kuti agadzire nzvimbo pakati peal-Shabaab ine nzvimbo neKenya. Mukuita uku, mauto eKenya akatora chiteshi cheKismayo uye nekukurumidza akabatana nemauto kubva kuAfrican Union Mission muSomalia mukurwisa al-Shabaab.
Al-Shabaab pachena kurwiswa kwaro kuri kudzorera zvakaitwa neKenya Kudzivirira kwemauto muSomalia. Izvo zvinovatsigira zvikonzero zvisingaverengeki inosangana neyepasi rose jihad.
Asi zvinokurudzirwawo kurwisa Kenya nekuda kwemabhenefiti ekutsvaga-ku-vis kutsvaga uye kutsvaga mari izvo zvikamu zvishoma zvinogadzirwa nevekunze venhau. Ndokunge, peji rekutanga nhau dzekurwiswa kweboka muKenya nekusaziva inopa nzira kune al-Shabaab kuratidza kurwisa kwavo nemasefa mashoma uye kushandisa dzakadai nhepfenyuro nhepfenyuro dzayo. Mhedzisiro yekuuraya kwakanyanya inowanzo shanda sematurusi ekutanga ekushandisa maererano nemasoja etsoka uye nemari.
Iyo zvakare inotangisa kurwisa nekuti inogona. Iri boka rakakwanisa kushandisa kushaikwa kwehurumende yakasimba muSomalia ne 682 kilomita kureba porous muganho pakati payo neKenya kwemakore akati wandei.
Sezvo 2011 boka arasikirwa ndima muSomalia. Zvakadaro, inoramba ichichengetedza hunyanzvi uye ine chinangwa chekukuvadza kwakanyanya muSomalia neKenya. Kurwiswa muSomalia kune kazhinji anga ari madiki-mashoma, achitarisa mauto nemapurisa. Pakave nezviitiko zvakakura. Semuenzaniso muna 2017 dai wango Vanhu mazana matatu vakaurayiwa apo rori rakazara nezvipuka rakaputika pakati peMogadishu.
Martin Plaut: Kurwiswa kweKenya muSomalia muna 2011 kwakaitwa nekuda kwezvikonzero zvinonzwisisika. Asi danho rekuenderera mberi rakatorwa richipokana nezano reshamwari dzenyika dzese - kusanganisira US nemuvakidzani wayo Ethiopia. Mauto eKenya akaedza kumisikidza Jubaland, kupatsanura matunhu eGedo, Lower Juba neMiddle Juba kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzeSomalia. Yakasangana nekubudirira kudiki.
Uku kuyedza kudzivirira al-Shabaab kubva pakuzvimisikidza pamuganhu weKenya rave basa rakanyanya, zvichipa mibvunzo nezvekuti ingasimudzirwa kwenguva yakareba sei uye nemutengo upi.
Nei Kenya kupfuura dzimwe nzvimbo dzemberi?
Brendon Cannon: Sezvakaratidzwa mune yangu yazvino nyaya, Kenya inorwiswa zvakanyanya kupfuura Ethiopia kana mamwe matunhu ekumabvazuva kweAfrica. Izvi zvinodaro nekuda kwezvikonzero zvine musoro izvo zvinovakirwa pamutengo-bhenefiti kuongororwa uye kuvapo kwemikana yakawanda.
Kenya ine kutaridzika kwepasi rose uye vezvenhau vakasununguka uye vakazvimiririra vanozivisa zvakanyanya kurwiswa kwegandanga. Chimwe chinhu ndechekuti Kenya yakagadzira chikamu chinopa mari yevashanyi chinopa zvinyoro nyoro.
Zvimwe zvinowedzera ndezvekuti pane huwandu hwakakwira hwevakarwa-maKenya-varwi mukati memapoka eboka ane ruzivo rwemuno. Izvi zvakabatsira al-Shabaab kuita kurwisa uye kuchengetedza maseru anotyisa muKenya. Nzvimbo inowedzera yedemocracy uye huwandu hwehuwori hunorevawo kuti boka iri rinokwanisa kushandisa hutera hwehutongi hwenyika kana zvasvika pakuchengetedza.
Ese aya misiyano inobatsira al-Shabaab kuronga uye kuita zviito zvehugandanga uchizadzisa chishuwo cheboka chekurarama nekuchengetedza kukosha.
Ndeipi yako ongororo yekupindura kweKenya nekukurumidza?
Brendon Cannon Mishumo yechiitiko chazvino uno ndeichi zvichakamurwa. Asi, zvinoita sekunge maererano nezvechengetedzo kwave nekumwe kufambira mberi kubvira iyo University of Garissa kurwisa muna 2015 uye kurwiswa kwe Westgate Mall muna 2013.
Mhinduro yemasoja eKenya ekuchengetedza, kunyanya iyo General Service Unit - bapiro remauto muNational Police Service yeKenya - zvinoita anga ari nenguva uye zvine hunyanzvi.
Chokwadi chinosuruvarisa ndechekuti kurwisa kwakarongeka - kwakazara nevanhu vanozviuraya nemabhomba, pamwe nemagandanga ane zvombo zvakanyanya uye akakurudzira kurwisa zvinangwa zvakapfava - zvinonetsa kukunda. Hazvina mhosva kuti hunyanzvi uye hwakasimba sei chengetedzo.
Martin Plaut: Sekutaura kwakaita VaMurithi Mutiga, veInternational Crisis Group, kurwiswa kwakapfuura kwakaona kudzvanywa kwevaKenya kuvanhu vechiMuslim. Vakuru vakapindura nekusunga magumbeze evaMuslim uye nekumanikidza kusarudzika kwakanangana nevaSomalia verudzi. Izvi zvakakonzera kusagadzikana uye zvakawedzera zvinhu. Zvakakosha zvakanyanya kuti kukanganisa uku kusadzokororwe. Kubatana chete ndiko kunogona kuitwa nevaKenya kukunda kutyisidzira kunokonzerwa nekurwiswa kwegandanga.
Chii chingaitwe neKenya kugadzirisa dambudziko iri?
Brendon Cannon: Zvinotyisa sekurwiswa uku, zvakakosha kuti uzive kuti nzvimbo huru dzekutengesa uye nzvimbo dzevashanyi dzakadzivirira zvakanyanya kurwiswa neal-Shabaab kubvira 2013 - kusvika nezuro. Izvi zvinotonyanya kushamisa nekuti zvinhu zviri mukati meal-Shabaab zvinoramba zvichikurudzirwa uye zvine masimba ekuramba vachirwisa Kenya.
Ini ndinobvunza iyo chikonzero chevamwe vezvematongerwo enyika vanotsigira kubviswa kweKenya nemauto ekudzivirira muSomalia senzira yeKenya yekunzvenga kurwiswa. Mushure mezvose, al-Shabaab akarwisa Kenya kakawanda pamberi pa2011 apo KDF yakapinda muSomalia.
Kuenderera mberi, Kenya inofanirwa kuyedza kusimbisa nzira dzekudzora muganho, kutepfenyura simba renyika munzvimbo dzese dzeKenya nekumutsidzira simba kurwa kwayo neal-Shabaab muSomalia: kurwa uko yakadzikira zvakanyanya kubva 2015.
Iri ibasa reHerculean uye iro iro hurumende yeKenya nevashandi vezvekuchengetedza, vachipihwa mhando nemhando yekutyisidzira, vanofanirwa kurumbidzwa nekuita zvakanaka kubvira 2013.
Martin Plaut: MaKenya anofanirwa kuve nemoyo murefu uye kushivirira - kuvaka hukama pakati penzvimbo dzavanogara uye kutarisana nenjodzi pamwe chete. Panguva imwecheteyo panofanirwa kuve nekuongororwa kwakakomba kwebasa reKenya mukati meSomalia. Pane zvishoma zvinoratidza kuti al-Shabaab inogona kukundwa nemasimba ekunze, kunyangwe kana ichigona kushomeka.
Hurumende yeSomalia yakundikana kakawanda, munguva pfupi yapfuura mukudzivirira Mukhtar Robow, aimbova mutauriri weal-Shabaab, kubva kutora chikamu musarudzo. Apo maitiro ayo Robow akabatwa uye akarerwa nemumiriri mukuru weUnited Nations, Nicholas Haysom, aive yakaziviswa persona isiri-grata, zvichinyatso kumudzinga muSomalia.
Brendon J. Cannon, Assistant Professor weInternational Security, Institute of International & Civil Security (IICS), Khalifa Yunivhesiti uye Martin Plaut, Senior Research Fellow, Nyanga yeAfrica neSouth Africa, Institute of Commonwealth Zvidzidzo, Chikoro cheAdvanced Study
Ichi chinyorwa chinodhindwa kubva The Conversation pasi peChirongwa Cheku Creative Commons. Verenga nyaya yepakutanga.
ZVOKUBVA MUNYAYA INO:
- The group has been able to exploit the absence of a strong government in Somalia and the 682 kilometre long porous border between it and Kenya for a number of years.
- At the height of its power, around 2008-2010, it controlled the capital, Mogadishu, and a sizeable territory south and west of the capital, including the ports of Merca and Kismayo.
- Tourism is a fragile industry and attacking the infrastructure of tourism can have substantial economic losses, and is a PR nightmare for every country, according to the U.
