TAIPEI - Makumi maviri emakore mushure mekurega vanhu vayo nemakambani kuenda kuChina, Taiwan iri kuzvivhurira kune veChinese vatengesi nevashanyi - danho rinogona kutakura migove mikuru yehupfumi asiwo imwe yakazara nenjodzi yezvematongerwo enyika.
Nekuvhura pachayo kune mafashama evashanyi veChinese uye madhora ekudyara, Taiwan iri kufumura misika yayo, hupfumi uye hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika nemagariro kune pesvedzero huru kubva kumuvakidzani wayo akakura uye mukwikwidzi wezvematongerwo enyika.
Vamwe vanofungidzira kuti jekiseni rechiitiko chitsva rinogona kusimudzira hupfumi hweTaiwan hwakadzikama nezvikamu zviviri kubva muzana. Asi kushaikwa kwekufambira mberi kana kudzokera kumashure kana shanduko ikaitika nekukasira kunogona kukanganisa hurumende itsva yeChina.
"Pachave nekunetsekana kwekutanga kana mainland capital ikauya kuzotenga zvivakwa, bhizinesi kana zvimwe zvinhu," akadaro Wu Ray-kuo, maneja director wezve njodzi kuFu-Jen University.
“Mushure meizvozvo, zvinobva pakuti mainland capital inoshandiswa sei. Kana kuzorora kwese uku kukasatungamira kune chaunoda, panogona kuve nekudzokerana neveruzhinji. "
Kubva Mutungamiri Ma Ying-jeou vatora chigaro muna Chivabvu, hutongi hwavo hwakazivisa hurongwa hwakasimba hwekuvhura Taiwan kuChina nekudyara kwavo, zvichipedza makumi matanhatu emakore ekurambidzwa.
Yekutanga yeidzo, chibvumirano chekushanya chakaitika muna Chikumi, chinogona kukonzera mari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matatu nemazana maviri emadhora mukuwedzera mari yekushanya gore rega rega, ichiwedzera 3.2 muzana yemapoinzi kune gross chigadzirwa cheTaiwan, BNP yakati mune yaChikunguru yekutsvagisa chinyorwa.
Kubva ipapo, manejimendi aMa akakurukura kana kuzivisa hurongwa hwekuvhura zvitoro zveTaiwan, zvivakwa, zvivakwa uye misika yekugadzira kuChina munguva pfupi kusvika pakati.
Nekufamba kwenguva, Ma ataurawo pfungwa yekugadzira musika weGreater China wakajairwa kuEurope.
ZVINOBATSIRA ZVIKURU
Mabhenefiti angangoitwa kumatanho aMa ihupfumi, hwakagadzirirwa kubatsira Taiwan kugovana mukukura kwehupfumi hweChina, uko kwakawedzera kupfuura gumi muzana mumakore achangopfuura.
Kana ikabatwa nemazvo, kubvumira vatengi veChinese nevanoita mari muTaiwan kunogona kuwedzera kusvika pazvikamu zviviri kubva muzana pakukura kwehupfumi hweTaiwan, Roth Capital Partners yakafanotaura muna Kubvumbi.
"Tinotenda kuti vatengesi vepasi rose havasati vanyatsotarisa pamikana yakagadziridzwa yenguva refu iyo Taiwan inomiririra," Roth akadaro mune imwe chinyorwa panguva iyoyo.
Nyanzvi yezvehupfumi yeJP Morgan, Grace Ng, akati kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kunogona kunge kwakakwira se1 muzana, vachipa Hong Kong semuenzaniso wezvingaitika.
Kukura kweGDP mune yaimbova koloni yeBritish kwakakwira kusvika pazvikamu zvitanhatu nenomwe kubva muzana kubva pamatengo apfuura kusvika pazvikamu zvina kubva muzana mushure mekuvhura mikova yayo kunhamba huru yevashanyi veChinese muna 6.
"Inyaya yekuti vangakwanise kuvhura mabhenefiti angangoita kubva kune-cross-strait links," akadaro.
China yakazviti inozvitonga Taiwan senzvimbo yayo kubva pakapera hondo yevagari veChina muna 1949 uye yakavimbisa kuunza chitsuwa ichi pasi pehutongi hwayo, nechisimba kana zvichidikanwa.
Kukwikwidzana kwezvematongerwo enyika parutivi, mafemu eTaiwan apinza mari inodarika mabhiriyoni zana emadhora muChina mumakore makumi maviri apfuura, uye Taiwan yave kutora China senzvimbo yainoda kutengesa kunze kwenyika. Inenge miriyoni imwe yevanhu vokuTaiwan mamiriyoni 100 vava kugara kana kushanda muChina.
Kutevera kusarudzwa kwaMa, vazhinji vanotarisira kuti capital ichatanga kuyerera ichidzokera kuTaiwan. Nyanzvi yezvehupfumi yeCredit Suisse, Joseph Lau, akati izvi zvinogona kuitika, asi chero zvabuda zvichatora nguva.
"Mumakore mashoma anotevera, Taiwan ingangove iri imwe yevasina basa mudunhu iri uye vazhinji vachange vachiedza kutsvaga nzira dzekusimudzira hupfumi," akadaro.
DOWNSIDE RISKS
Kunyange iyo kumusoro ichitaridzika zvakanaka, vanoongorora vanoyambira kuti Ma nehurumende yake vanofanirwa kutsika-tsika kuti vadzivise kuita kwakashata kana Taiwan ichionekwa sekupa yakawandisa pasina kuwana zvakakwana mukudzoka.
Kana ikatadza kuburitsa, manejimendi anogona kuona kuratidzira kweveruzhinji munguva pfupi, uye kukwikwidza kwakasimba kwenguva refu kubva kune mupikisi mukuru webato rake, China-anongwarira Democratic Progressive (nyse: PGR - news - people ) Bato, ranyura mune rimwe bato. mhirizhonga yakakonzera kuti ikundwe musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika muna Kurume.
"Ini ndinofungidzira kuti Ma vachatarisana nekupokana kwakasimba nekuti vari kuchinja zvinhu zvishoma uye pane kuramba kuchinja zvisinei kuti chii," akadaro Syd Goldsmith, aimbove mumiriri weUS uye anogara muTaiwan.
"Kune zvakare manzwiro ekuti ari kupa (yeTaiwan) machipisi ekutaurirana kuChina."
Kuodzwa mwoyo nekushaikwa kwemigumisiro yekukurumidza kupfuura chibvumirano chekushanyirwa kwave kutoratidza zvinooneka mumisika yeTaiwan yekutengesa nemari.
Mumwedzi mitatu yekutanga yegore, dhora reTaiwan rakawana 6.3 muzana, kungodonha 5.8 muzana kubva ipapo.
Musika wemasheya weTaiwan wakafambawo saizvozvo, uchikwira nezvikamu gumi nepfumbamwe kubva pakupera kwaNdira kusvika Chivabvu, uchingodonha nezvikamu makumi matatu neshanu kubva muzana kubva panguva iyoyo, asi chimwe chazvo chave nekuda kwedambudziko remari pasi rose.
