Coronavirus uye iyo Outlook yeAfrica Economy uye Beyond

Project Tariro Kufamba nhengo Dr. Walter Mzembi vapinda webinar neInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) mangwanani ano pakuona Africa kune Coronavirus. Project Tariro chirongwa che African Tourism Bhodhi.

Heano ake akakosha kutora.

General Maonero
1. Africa inoita kunge iri kudzvanyirira curve kusvika zvino. Zvinotaridza senge zvinogona kutiza chakaipisisa denda, asi zvichafanirwa kungwarira nezvazvo.
2. Kubvira kweW W Curve - kureva, Pane mukana wakanaka wekuitikazve kwehutachiona, izvo zvinogona kuona mukana wekugara wakakiyiwa. Mabhizinesi anofanirwa kuronga maererano.
3. Capital ichatsvaga nyika dzisina kurohwa zvakanyanya. Hupfumi hwekuMadokero hwakarohwa zvakaipisisa apo nyika dziri muAfrica, nezvimwe zvisina kurohwa zvakadaro. Global Capital inogona kuyerera imomo, kana isu tichigona kuita nemazvo kuidhonza.
4. Emotional uye Economic kumukira shure neChina kunotarisirwa. Nechekare, nyika uye makambani arikugadzirira zano rekukwira kure neChina sechikamu chemaketani avo ekupa. Japan Govt yazivisa mapakeji emakambani ayo ari kudzosa kumba kwekugadzira. Mabhizinesi anofanirwa kuchengeta izvi mupfungwa uye shanda zvinoenderana.

Discretionary Spending.
1. Kune vanhu, hutano nekuchengeteka zvichave zveNha. 1 pane yavo ajenda kubva kunzvimbo yechitatu yechina Kuchave nekushandisa kwakawanda pane ino nharaunda uye kudzikiswa mune kumwe kusarudzika kwekushandisa.
2. Saizi yetikiti yekushandisa ichadonha kwechinguva. Vanhu vachashandisa zvinhu zvakachipa pane kutenga zvinhu zvinodhura, kana kunonoka kushandisa kwechinguva.
3. Kumhanyisa kwakanyanya muhupfumi hwedigital. Ie Dzidzo yekumba, varaidzo yekumba, kugwinya kwemusha, nezvimwe
4. Kuvimbika kuvhunduka. Vanhu havazove vakavimbika kumakambani sezvo zvimwe zvinhu zvichatora nzvimbo. Vanhu vachachinja mabhureki nekukurumidza nekuda kwezvimwe zvinhu zvakasiyana sekuchengetedza, nezvimwe.
5. General Trust dhefisiti. Kuchave nekushomeka kwekuvimba pakati pevatori vechikamu sevatengesi, vatengi, vashandi, vanokwereta, mabhangi, nezvimwewo.

Liquidity uye P&L
1. Kuparadzanisa Mari Yakanaka uye Yakashata Mari
a. Mari yakanaka (semuenzaniso. Digitization, tech tech, kushambadzira kwedhijitari, vashandi vakanakisa, nezvimwewo) zvinoda kuvharirwa uye kuchengetedzwa
b. Mari Yakashata (Semuenzaniso. Hofisi inoshamisira, kushandisa zvisina basa, vanoita zvisirizvo, nzira dzekushanda dzechinyakare) dzinofanirwa kubviswa zvisina tsitsi. Usave nemanzwiro nezve asiri-epakati mabhizinesi. Fungisisa pane bhizimusi repakati.
2. Be Frugal - Hazvidiwe kuti uve nehofisi yemhando yepamusoro, mota dzemhando yepamusoro, simba remushandi rakawandisa, nezvimwewo Bvisa iyo flab uye uve wakaonda.
3. Chengetedza Hunhu Hwakanaka - ita hurukuro yakajeka neyakavhurika nevose vane chekuita sevatengesi, vashandi, nezvimwe uye edza kutsvaga nzvimbo yepakati, kuitira kuti mutoro ugovane zvakafanira.
4. Gadzirira Ramangwana - Mune iri dambudziko, pachave nevakundi uye pachave nevakakundwa. Ivo vanodzokorodza zano ravo vanozove vakundi.

Hurumende Inokurudzira
1. Hupfumi hwakanga husina kumira zvakanaka kunyangwe COVID isati yavapo. Iyo govt ine shoma nzira yekupa yakakura kukurudzira.
2. Govt inowana yakawanda kubva kumitero, nezviitiko zvekurasikirwa izvi zvinokwidziridzwa sei?
3. Kusalingana kwatonhorwa. Mukaha uripakati pevapfumi nevarombo wakawedzera kuwedzera. Hurumende inoda kutarisisa pahutano hwehuwandu uye hutano hwakanaka. Kana zvisiri, vanhu zviuru makumi mana vanogona kunyura muhurombo.
4. Govt inofanirwa kuongorora mari yekudhinda (Quantitative kurerutsa), asi pane zvisingakwanisike pano. Iyo ine mhedzisiro senge inflation, nezvimwe. Nyika dzakapfuma dzine mukana wakanyanya wekurerutsa huwandu hwakadai.
5. Hurumende inofanirwa kuisa pfungwa pakubata mari zhinji kubva kunze voita mabhindauko ekugonesa izvozvo.

Mhedzisiro yekudzokera shure kuChina
1. Pakati penyika, pangave nekushushikana mupfungwa uye nehupfumi kurwisa China.
2. Mabhizinesi ane cheni dzinopa kuburikidza neChina achada kuchengeta izvi mupfungwa uye kuzvidzivirira uye kuvaka dzimwe nzira.
3. Africa neafrican mabhizinesi anofanirwa kuyedza kuve kontrakiti inogadzira pasi, sezvakaita China. Ivo vanofanirwa kushandisa uyu mukana zvine hungwaru.
4. Yese hombe hupfumi mari uye soverign mari ichave yakazara ne Liquidity. Urwu ruzivo runoda kukwezva.
5. Muchikamu chega chega, mune makambani akanaka uye akaipa. Management inofanirwa kuisa mari nenzira kwayo mukugadzira uye tekinoroji yazvino, kuva akatendeseka uye akarurama kune vese vanobatika, nezvimwewo, Iwo makambani ane manejimendi akanaka uye anoratidza hunhu hwakanaka anouya achikunda.

Export Bhizinesi
1. Vatengesi vemuAfrica vanoda kuvaka ruvimbo. Vanoda kurarama maererano nezvakavimbiswa. Ivo vanofanirwa kuendesa nenguva uye kununura mhando yakavimbiswa. Ivo havafanirwe kuita zvipikirwa zvisiri izvo kuti vangowana bhizinesi rakawanda.
2. Bhizinesi rekuAsia rekutengesa rakavaka kuvimba uye mukurumbira wakanaka Kunyangwe yacheckered yapfuura (yakaderera mhando, nyaya dzekodzero dzevanhu, nezvimwewo) ivo vakakwanisa kukunda uye vari kuhwina.

Wholesale, Retail, nezvimwe.
1. Vanhu vazhinji vanosarudza kutenga kubva kuzvitoro zvinotengesa uko kune maonero ekuchengetedza (semuenzaniso. Utsanana, hutsanana, mhomho, nezvimwewo). Vachafamba zvakanyanya kuenda kumamall kure nemisika. Vazhinji vanozoenda kune online zvitoro. Vatengesi vepasi rose vanodawo kutarisa kune vakadaro vatengesi
2. Vatengi vanodawo kuverengerwa:
a. Mahotera ekumusoro-ekupedzisira anoda kupa yakakwira muzana bhiri kukosha sechipo makuponi kuzoshandiswa chero nguva kusvika Zvita 2020.
b. Makambani emota uye mogeji dzinofanirwa kupa zvinodzoserwa, kana mutengi akarasikirwa nebasa rake mugore rinotevera.
3. Mutengo unoda kuswazve. Vanhu vari kutsvaga mitengo yakachipa kana zvinhu zvakachipa.

Brick & Mortar muDiscretionary Inoshandisa
1. Dzakazvimirira zvikoro zvinogona kutora hombe hit munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Varaidzo aigona kuenda kumba.
2. Nekuda kweizvi, maresitorendi nemaresitorendi anogona kuona kumwe kuwedzera kwebhizinesi. Maketani mazhinji arikushandisa matanho senge kushamwaridzana munharaunda senge fenicha diki, nezvimwe, kuvaka chivimbo kune vatengi.
3. Vatengesi vadiki vanoda kutumira meseji yekuchengetedza. Semuenzaniso: Iva nevanoshenesa, isa chiziviso chekuti hapana COVID mushandi akanaka anowanikwa muchitoro, chengetedza kushamwaridzana kwevanhu, nezvimwe.
4. Sezvo kufamba uye kushanya kuchizotora rova ​​huru, zvakabatana zvakatengwa zvinochinjawo. Kutenga kwakaitika kunze kwenyika kuchaitika kumba. (Semuenzaniso, Zvemagetsi, zvinhu zvinodhura, uye zvipfeko, nezvimwewo). Asi kutenga zvine chekuita nekufamba kunodonha.

Mari Mazvikwereti
1. Kuchave nekukosha kwekuparadza uye kukosha kwekusika mumakambani akasiyana muchikamu chimwe chete.
2. High Chikwereti yakaderera margin makambani anozozviona zvakaoma. (inoratidza zvine njodzi kana manejimendi manejimendi)
3. Chikwereti Chikuru makambani ekumahombekombe anogona kupihwa mubairo, asi chenjedzo inofanira kushandiswa. (inogona kuratidza kupinza kana simba manejimendi)
4. Hapana chikwereti chakakwira margin makambani anopihwa mubairo ikozvino.
5. Ziva zvakawanda nezve CEO nemaneja nezviito zvavo nezviito.
6. Nyowani nyowani nyowani dzinozozvarwa. Ivo vanobatanidzwa mukuchengetedza cyber, masevhisi egore, epamhepo dzidzo masevhisi, nezvimwe.

Forex Markets
1. Hapana mamiriro ezuva rekuparadzwa (kureva kuti Dhora richaramba richikwira zvichingodaro). Zviitiko zvakadaro zvinoita sezviri kuitika
2. Hurumende inofanirwa kunge ichitenga oiri yakawandisa sezvazvinogona, sezvo mitengo yakadaro isingazomboonekwe mune ramangwana remafuta.
3. Sezvo hupfumi hwekumadokero hwanyanya kurohwa uye hupfumi hwenzvimbo husina kurohwa zvakanyanya kusvika pari zvino, kune mari yakawanda iri kuuya. Ndosaka paine rally pamusika. Iyi mamiriro anogona kuchinja zvichienderana nekupararira kwechirwere.
4. Chenjerera spikes dzakapinza mumusika. Zvirinani kudzivirira iwo mapiki.

Tarisiro yenguva yemberi iri pedyo
A. Makambani Makuru
a. Kunetseka kukuru kunoonekwa kune vashandi. Makambani ari kubhadhara vashandi kunyange paakavharwa.
b. Kurudyi-saizi kuchaitika
c. Kuchengetedzeka kwevashandi nevatengi kuri kuve chinhu chikuru chekutarisa.
d. Izvi zvinogoneka nekuti vane akachengeterwa mari, nezvimwe izvo zvakavakwa pamusoro pemakore.

B. Bhizinesi repakati nepakati.
a. Ivo vanofanirwa kushanda neakaonda capital capital. Mari yakawandisa inotorwa kunze kwebhizinesi yoiswa muzvinhu zvemunhu.
b. Mabhizimusi madiki anotora zvakasara otenga zvinhu zvako pachinzvimbo chekuisa mari zvakare mubhizinesi. Pane zvinhu zvakasiyana siyana uye zvinokurudzira pano.
c. Nekuda kweizvi, ivo havakwanise kusangana nemari yemubhadharo kunyangwe iwo mwedzi unotevera.
e. Pakati nepakati uye madiki mabhizinesi anofanirwa kuve nekutarisa maitiro avanogona kuvaka mamwe mabhizinesi ekuchengetera kutsungirira kukanganisa kwakadai.

"Force Majeure" mukati Zvibvumirano
1. Inomanikidza here majeure clause kuti akonzere muzvibvumirano zvakasiyana senge rendi, kupihwa, nezvimwe? Izvo zvinotungamira kumatare, asi hapana chikonzero chekupinda mumatare zvino.
2. Mapato ese akanganiswa nedambudziko. Maroja, varidzi vemba, vakweretesi / vezvemari, nezvimwe.
3. Mapato anofanirwa kugara mhiri kwetafura votsvaga nzvimbo imwe chete vobva vasarudza pamwe pamutengo, zvivakwa, nezvimwewo. Mutoro unofanira kugoverwa.

Shanda Kubva Kumhuri Chiitiko
1. Izvo zvinokwanisika kune vazhinji vashandi kuti varege kushanyira hofisi uye voramba vachibudirira.
2. Telecoms neIPP vachange vachiimba Halleluyia kumabhangi
3. Vabereki vanogona kuchengeta vana zvakanyanya. Panogona kuve nerima maawa kana pasina kufona kuchaitwa, nezvimwewo,

Kufarira
Sekuongorora kwaMcKinsey kwevemabhizimusi kwakaburitswa mazuva mashoma apfuura, 67% yevatengesi vemuAfrica vane tarisiro, 53%, nepo chete 37% yevatengesi veAsia vane tarisiro.
Inotaridzika kunge yakapfava U-curve kune dzimwe hupfumi hwemuAfrica. Asi kuburuka hakuna kumira.