GENEVA, Switzerland - Sangano reInternational Air Transport Association (IATA) rakazivisa kuvandudzwa kwemaitiro ayo ekuita kwemari muna 2013 kweindasitiri yendege yepasi rose zvichibva pamari yakasimba. IATA ikozvino inotarisira kuti makambani endege agadzire yakabatanidzwa mambure post-mutero purofiti ye1.6% (kukwira kubva pane yaimbofanotaurwa 1.3%) nemubhadharo wepashure pemutero wemadhora bhiriyoni gumi.
“Purofiti yemumaindasitiri iri kutora danho diki mugwara chairo. Tichipesana nemamiriro etariro yakavandudzwa yetarisiro yehupfumi hwepasi rose kudiwa kwevatakuri kwave kwakasimba uye misika yekutakura zvinhu iri kutanga kukura zvakare. Tarisiro yezvehupfumi iri kuitawo kuti mitengo yemafuta ikwire. Tiri kuona kuvandudzwa kwemari inosvika mabhiriyoni gumi nemaviri emadhora, uye mutengo wemadhora mabhiriyoni mapfumbamwe negumi — zvizhinji zvacho zvine chekuita nemafuta edzimotokari,” akadaro Tony Tyler, Director General uye CEO weIATA.
Ruvimbo muindasitiri yendege iri kusimuka zvakatenderedza zvinhu zvakati wandei:
Mafungiro ekukura kweGDP kwegore ra2013 akakwidziridzwa kusvika pa2.4%, budiriro huru kubva pa2.1% muna 2012.
Zvinotaridza kuti pasi penyika yepasi rose kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri kwakasvikwa muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2012 mushure mezvo kwave nemwedzi mitanhatu yekuwedzera kuburitsa uye kuvandudzwa kwekuvimba kwebhizinesi.
Pane kuvandudzwa kwemaitiro mumashandiro emari eindasitiri yendege sezvinocherechedzwa nekuwedzera kwezvikamu zvinomwe kubva muzana kubva pakutanga kwegore, zvisinei nekukwira kwemafuta emafuta ne7%.
Njodzi uye Volatility
IATA yakaona kuti njodzi dzakakura dzichiripo dzinogona kukanganisa kupora. Maonero acho anobva pauchapupu hwekuwedzera kuvimba kwebhizinesi. Asi gakava riri pamusoro pechikumbiro chekubhadharisa mari kuCypriot masangano emari mucherechedzo wakajeka wekuti dambudziko reEurozone harisati rapera uye rinogona kutowedzera kuipa.
"Zvisungo zveEuropean Central Bank zvine chekuita nedambudziko reEurozone uye kudzikira kwehupfumi muUS kunofanirwa kunge kuri kutinongedzera kune imwe nguva, kana isina simba, kusimuka. Asi isu tatova nemavambo maviri enhema. Kuvandudza mamiriro ekutanga 2011 uye 2012 akaparara sezvo dambudziko reEurozone rakawedzera. Uye zvinogona kuitika zvakare. Kukanganisa kwemamiriro arikuitika muCyprus ingozi isingagoni kufuratirwa,” akadaro Tyler.
Forecast Highlights
Yakasimba Mari: Mari yakawedzera ($ 671 bhiriyoni, inokwira madhora bhiriyoni gumi nemaviri kubva pamaonero aZvita) ndiwo mutyairi mukuru wekuita kwemari kwakavandudzwa zvishoma. Kudiwa kwekutakura kunotarisirwa kukura ne12% (kudzoreredza maitiro ekudzikira emakore maviri apfuura) uye goho remutoro rinotarisirwa kuve rakati sandara (kuvandudzwa kwe2.7% kuderera kwaimbofungidzirwa). Kudiwa kwevatasvi kunotarisirwa kukura ne1.5% (kubva pa5.4% yaimbotarisirwa) uye goho rinotarisirwa kukura ne4.5% (panzvimbo pe0.4% kuderera kwaimbofungidzirwa).
Mariro: Mari yemafuta iri kuwedzera. Jet mafuta anotarisirwa kuita avhareji yemadhora zana nemakumi matatu / dhiramu kwegore (kubva pamadhora zana nemakumi maviri nematatu / dhiramu inofungidzirwa muna Zvita). Uye bhiri remafuta richakura kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matanhatu emadhora, bhiriyoni mazana matanhatu emadhora pamusoro pezvinotarisirwa naZvita. Pakazara, mafuta achaita 130% yemitengo yendege, isina kuchinjwa kubva muna 124.3.
Kuyerera Kwemari: Mafambiro emari endege ari kuratidza zvirinani pane zvaitarisirwa kuita zvichipihwa mutengo wakakwira uye kukura kusina simba. Izvi zvakadaro zvinosiyana nedunhu uye saizi yendege. Vakuru veAsia vatakuri vakaona kuvandudzwa kwakanyanya.
Maitiro muUS akadzikama asi anofananidzwa nemazinga ekutanga kuderera, nepo ndege dzeEuropean dziri kunetseka nekudzikira.
Kunyatsogona: Kuenzanisa kwe2013 mamiriro uye inotarisirwa purofiti kune iyo ye2006 inoratidza budiriro yakakura mukubudirira. Indasitiri yakasanganiswa yekushanda muganho mumakore ese maviri yakanga yakafanana (3.2% muna 2006 uye 3.3% inotarisirwa muna 2013) asi mamiriro ezvinhu muna 2013 akaoma zvikuru:
Muna 2006 GDP kukura kwaiva 4.0%, pamusoro pe2.4% inotarisirwa gore rino.
Muna 2006 mutengo wedhiramu reBrent crude waive $65.1, iri pasi pe$109.5 inotarisirwa gore rino.
Kubatanidzwa mumisika yemumba uye mabatiro akabatana pane dzimwe nzira dzenguva refu dzave zvinhu zvakakosha mukugadzira budiriro yekutsigira kushanda kwemari. Izvi zvinoratidzwa nekukwira kwemutoro kubva pa76.1% muna 2006 kusvika painotarisirwa 79.8% muna 2013.
Dunhu Outlook
Ndege dzeAsia-Pacific dzinotarisirwa kuunza mupiro wakakura kwazvo mukuita kweindasitiri ne $4.2 bhiriyoni mambure emubairo inotarisirwa muna 2013 (kubva pamadhora mabhiriyoni 3.2 aimbofungidzirwa uye kubva pamadhora mabhiriyoni 3.9 akashumwa muna 2012). Vatakuri veAsia vanosanganisira makumi mana muzana emusika wekutakura zvinhu zvemhepo uye ndivo vanozo batsirikana zvikuru mukukwira kuri kutarisirwa mukudiwa kwekutakura zvinhu. Vatakuri mudunhu vanotarisirwa kuona avhareji yekukura kwe40%, ichipfuura zvishoma ne4.9% yekuwedzera kugona.
Ndege dzekuNorth America dziri kutarisirwa kuburitsa purofiti inosvika mabhiriyoni matatu nemazana matanhatu emadhora. Izvi zviri mberi zvishoma kune $3.6 bhiriyoni yakambofungidzirwa uye $ 3.4 bhiriyoni purofiti yakashumwa muna 2.3. Dunhu iri musika wakura (kunyanya wemabasa epamba). Kubata kwakasimba kwehutongi mukupindura kudhura kwemafuta kwakakwira kuchaona kuwedzera kwe2012% mukudiwa kunotungamira 1.3% yekuwedzera muhukuru.
Vatakuri veEurope vanotarisirwa kuzivisa purofiti yemadhora mazana masere emamiriyoni. Uku ndiko kuvandudzwa kwezvakambofungidzirwa kuita breakeven performance uye iyo $800 miriyoni purofiti muna 300, asi pa 2012% chete yemuhoro iyo yakatosiyana nekupunzika. Uye ndiwo musika uchanyanya kukanganiswa nekusagadzikana kunokonzerwa nedambudziko reEurozone. Musika wemuEurope wepamba unoramba usina kusimba, uchiratidza kuderera kwehupfumi mukondinendi yese. Nekudaro, makambani endege anotarisirwa kuratidza kushanda kwakasimba panzira dzenguva refu kuenda kumisika iri kusimukira. Kudiwa kwese kwevatakuri veEurope kunotarisirwa kukura ne0.4% iyo inoenderana nekuwedzera kwehuwandu hwe2.6%.
Ndege dzekuMiddle East dziri kutarisirwa kutumira mari inoita bhiriyoni imwe nemazana mana emadhora. Izvi zviri kukwira zvishoma kubva pamadhora bhiriyoni 1.4 zvakafanotaurwa uye zvakasimba kudarika purofiti yemadhora mamiriyoni mazana mapfumbamwe emadhora yakanyorwa muna 1.1. Basa riri kukura rendege dzedunhu iri mukupa kubatana kumisika iri kusimukira rinoratidzwa mukukura kwakasimba kwemotokari. Ndege dzedunhu iri dzinotarisirwa kuwedzera 900% mukugona muna 2012 uye izvi zvichapfuura nekukura kwekuda kwe12.8%. Vatakuri vedunhu iri vari pachinhanho chechitatu maererano nekuita pundutso neEarnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) margin ye2013%, mushure meAsia-Pacific (13.7%) neNorth America (3.4%).
Ndege dzeLatin America dzichatumira purofiti yemadhora mazana matanhatu emamiriyoni. Ndiyo chete dunhu rekuona kudzikira (madhora zana emamiriyoni) zvichienzaniswa nekufanotaura kwaZvita. Zvisinei, izvi zvicharatidza kupetwa kaviri kwepurofiti kana zvichienzaniswa negore ra600. Zvakadaro, dunhu richaona yechipiri kukura kwepamusoro mukudiwa (100%) uye ichave 2012 muzana mapoinzi pamberi peinotarisirwa kuwedzera huwandu.
Makambani endege emuAfrica anotarisirwa kutumira purofiti inosvika mamiriyoni zana emadhora muna 100. Izvi zviri pamberi pekuzorora kwaimboitwa uye kurasikirwa nemamiriyoni zana emadhora muna 2013. kuwedzera kwe100% muhuwandu. Nyika yekondinendi inoramba iri nzvimbo yakatarisana nekukura nevatakuri vari mudunhu uye avo vanopa masevhisi mudunhu. Makwikwi pakati pevaviri ava anoramba akasimba.
Kufambira Mberi
“Kuvandudzwa kuri kuita purofiti mumaindasitiri kunokurudzira. Asi dzinofanira kuchengetwa dzakajeka. Tiri kufungidzira kuti makambani endege achaita purofiti inosvika mabhiriyoni gumi nemazana matanhatu emadhora pamadhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi manomwe nerimwe emadhora mumari yeindasitiri. Kana tichienzanisa gore rapfuura Nestle, kambani imwe chete, yakaita mari inopfuura mabhiriyoni gumi nerimwe emadhora mupurofiti pamari inosvika zana remabhiriyoni emadhora. Chronic anemic profitability inofananidzwa neakawanda ezvekukosha kwendege kana ichienzaniswa nemamwe masekete. Zvichada zvinopfuura kuvandudza mamiriro ehupfumi kugadzirisa. Zvinetso kana mabhenefiti ekuita izvi hazvifanirwe kurerutswa, ”akadaro Tyler.
Kufambiswa kwendege inzira yekusimudzira hupfumi nebudiriro inotsigira mabasa anosvika mamirioni makumi mashanu nenomwe uye madhora mazana maviri nemazana maviri emadhora mumabasa ehupfumi.
“Nzira chete yekubuda mumatambudziko ehupfumi atiri kuona pasi rose kukura. Ndege dzinoita basa rakakosha, kupa kubatana kunomutsa bhizinesi uye kuendesa zvigadzirwa kumisika yepasirese. Asi izvi tinogona kuzviita chete kana indasitiri iri kuunza mabhenefiti akasimba,” akadaro Tyler.
"Maonero akavandudzwa pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu akaoma ekushanda anoratidza kushanda uye kuvandudzwa kwakaitwa sezvo indasitiri yakazvigadzirisa pamakore gumi apfuura. Asi kazhinji hurumende dzinotikandira mabhora akakomberedzwa. Mumavhiki apfuura takava nezvimwe zviyeuchidzo zvisingafadzi. Europe yakazivisa zvikumbiro zvemutemo wekodzero dzevatyairi izvo zvichawedzera mutengo pakubhururuka, asi nerubatsiro rushoma kana rusina kwenguva refu kune vatengi. Kutorwa kwebhajeti reUS kuchaona kudzikiswa kwekutonga kwekufamba kwendege, chengetedzo uye kutonga kwemuganho izvo zvinogona kudhura zvakanyanya mune zvehupfumi pane kubatsirikana kwemari yekuchengetedza inowanikwa. Uye iyo UK's Air Passenger Duty - mutero wepamusoro wendege munyika - uchawedzera zvakare musi wa 1 Kubvumbi. Ndege hadzidi kurapwa kwakakosha, asi dzinoda akabatana-up policy framework inovagonesa kusangana nekukura kuri kuita zvinodiwa zvekubatanidza zvine mwero. Iine 1.6% net profit margin, pane shoma shoma pakati pepurofiti nekurasikirwa, ”akadaro Tyler.
ZVOKUBVA MUNYAYA INO:
- There is a structural improvement in the airline industry's financial performance as recognized by a 7% increase in share prices since the beginning of the year, despite a 5% increase in fuel costs.
- But the controversy over the draconian bailout proposal for Cypriot financial institutions is a clear indicator that the Eurozone crisis is not over and could take a turn for the worse.
- We are seeing a $12 billion improvement in revenue, and a $9-10 billion increase in costs—most of which is related to fuel,” said Tony Tyler, IATA's Director General and CEO.
