2020 inoita kunge iri kuumba kuti rive gore rekufamba kwakangwara. Njodzi dzinoverengeka dzisinganetsi dzekufamba idzo dzave chikamu cheyakajairwa mazuva ese kumusoro kwepfungwa kana uchironga rwendo mazuva ano. Ndedzipi njodzi dzepamusoro dzekufamba dzegore idzva?

Iko kukanganisa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye ingangove yekupedzisira gore rekutonga kwaTrump ndiyo ichave zvikonzero zviviri zvakakosha zvengozi dzekufamba mugore rinotevera maererano nekambani inotungamira yekuziva njodzi yekufamba.

Shanduko Yemamiriro ekunze uye zvainoita pakufamba

Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze zvakatungamira kune zvisina kujairika mafashama emvura zhinji, mafashama anoparadza, madutu akakomba, kupisa kwenguva refu uye kuwedzera kwekushisa zvese zvichikonzera kukura kwekushomeka kwemvura, kusanaya uye moto wesango une njodzi. Nekuwedzera kwehuwandu hwenjodzi dzinongoitika dzega - semuenzaniso, Hurricane Dorian iyo yakakonzera kuparadzwa kukuru muBahamas munaGunyana 2019 - kufa, kukanganiswa kwebhizimusi nekufamba uye simba nekutaurirana kubuda kuri kuramba kuchidzoka. Kuedza kudzosera kukanganisa kwakakonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze hakuna kukwana sezvo United States, yechipiri pakukura kabhoni, ichibuda kubuda muchibvumirano chakakosha cheParis mu2020 kana VaTrump vakunda rimwe izwi muhofisi.

Kurongeka kwepasi kurongeka: US 2020, Brexit, US-China yekutengeserana hondo

Mhedzisiro yereferendamu yaBrexit ya2015 kuUK uye nesarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika yeUnited States (US) dza2016 dzinoramba dzichisimudzira magariro ezvematongerwo enyika amire munyika mbiri idzi. Mhedzisiro yenguva refu yezviitiko zvese zviri zviviri haina kujeka parizvino, asi kudzoka kumamiriro ezvinhu hazviite mune chero nyika - pro-Brexit uye pro-Trump mubatanidzwa uyo wakakunda mu2015 na2016 vakaunganidza mauto ezvematongerwo enyika acharamba ari chiitiko chemakore anouya. Kana UK ikasiya EU, izvi zvichakonzera shanduko huru yezvehupfumi mubhizimusi rekutengeserana uye panguva imwechete, nhengo dzeEU dzichatarisana nekumwe kukanganisika kwehupfumi kubva kuUS-China kutengeserana kwehondo sezvo, kusvika parizvino, hapana mumwe wevavengi veMutungamiri Trump veDemocratic. akavimbisa kubvisa mitero yakatemwa nehutungamiriri hwake.

Islamist Ugandanga

Ugandanga hweIslam hucharamba huri panjodzi kune vafambi muna2020 sezvo nhengo dzekare dzeIslamic State (IS) dzichange dzichitsvaga kuita mhirizhonga zvichitevera kufa kweaimbova mutungamiri weIS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi pakurwisa kwakatungamirwa neUS kuSyria mu Gumiguru 2019. Vaimbove varwi veIS uye vanhu vane IS-vakafemerwa vachatarisa kuita kurwisa kwega-mhumhi mune chero nyika ine vakawanda vashanyi vekunze.

Kure-kurudyi ugandanga

Vakuru vezvematongerwo enyika vekunze nemasangano enhau vanozowana mukurumbira muWestern world muna2020, kunyanya sezvo Mutungamiriri weUnited States (US) VaDonald Trump vasimbisa kurwira kwavo sarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika muna Mbudzi. Kurwiswa kwakafanana nekuuraya kwakaipisisa kwaKurume 2019 kumosque uye nzvimbo yeIslam muChristchurch, New Zealand, uye kuuraya kwaNyamavhuvhu 2019 muEl Paso, Texas, zvinoramba zvichikwanisika kunyanya muUS, sezvo mapoka emapapiro kurudyi achiwana kukwezva nekuwedzera kuvapo kwavo mumatongerwo enyika eAmerica.

Chirwere chinotapukira chinoputika pakati pekuenderera mberi kwekufamba

Huru uye dzakakurumbira nharaunda, kuwedzera kwemaguta, kusasimba kwehurumende mhinduro uye kushomeka kwehutano zvivakwa, pamwe nekurwiswa kwevashandi vehutano munzvimbo dzekupokana, pamwe nemhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze zvese zviri kukonzera kuputika kwezvirwere zvakaita seEbola, korera, yellow fever nezvimwe. hosha dzinotakurwa neumhutu zvakanyanya. Muna 2019, kuputika kunotyisa kwedengue fever kwakataurwa muBrazil, Philippines, Mexico, Nicaragua, Thailand, Malaysia neColombia. Masayendisiti anofungidzira mukana we80 muzana yemamiriro ekunze eEl Niño anoitika mu2020, achiunza kunaya kwakanyanya kunaya uye kusanaya kwenguva refu kunyika dzakakomberedza Pacific Ocean nekugadzira nzira yezvirwere zvinotakurwa neumhutu.

Kubuda kweInternet uye mutengo unowedzera webhizinesi

Mu2018 na2019, internet kudzima magetsi kwakanangana nekumisa kupararira kwekuratidzira kunopokana nehurumende kwakadhura Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Ethiopia, Chad, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo neVenezuela, mabhiriyoni emadhora muhupfumi hwakarasika. chiitiko. Iri zano richaramba richikunda mu2020 sehurumende dzinofarira kuve, pane kugadzirisa, kusagutsikana kunoratidzwa online.

Anti-systemic kuratidzira: democracy uye nyika

Mu2019 pakange paine kusimuka kwakanyanya mukurwisa-systemic kuratidzira pasirese, kunyanya muLatin America, zvikamu zveEurope, Middle East neEast Asia. Sezvo kusagutsikana kwakakurumbira nehurumende kuri kukura munyika zhinji nekuda kwehupfumi nehupfumi, tarisira mafambiro ekuratidzira aya kuti akure muhuwandu uye kuwanda muna 2020. Pamusoro pezvo, manzwiro emunyika ave achikwirawo muEurope, achisimbiswa nekuratidzira kukuru kwerusununguko / kuzvitonga muCatalonia, nepo kukwira kwenzvimbo dzakapokana nekurwisa huwori kwakamanikidza vanogaro munzvimbo dzakaita seSerbia, Romania, Hungary neMoldova. Dzimwe nyika dzekutsvaga dzinosanganisira United Kingdom seBrexit looms.

MENA Geopolitics: iro basa reRussia

Kubva 2015, Russia yakawedzera kuita kwayo kwemauto nehupfumi kuMiddle East, kunyanya muSyria neTurkey, asi zvakare ichiwedzera hukama neIsrael, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, United Arab Emirates neSaudi Arabia, ku mari yeUnited States (US). Russia ichaenderera mberi ichitamba chinoshoreka mudunhu muna 2020.

Zviitiko zvemitambo zvepasi rose

Zviitiko zvikuru zvemitambo senge maOlimpiki eZhizha muJapan, UEFA Euro, Copa América muArgentina neColombia uye matatu mabhasikoro eGrand Tours angangoisa njodzi kune vafambi muna 2020. Njodzi dzinogona kuitika dzinosanganisira hugandanga hwakanangwa nekuda kwevanhu vazhinji uye kufarira kwepasirese kwepasirese. . Zvakare, kukanganiswa kwekufamba nendege muEurope kwese zvakare kunogoneka kana paine mukwikwidzi akafanirwa nekuratidzira kwenguva refu kwevashandi mumhepo.

Kushomeka kwemvura

Sezvo mafungu ekupisa anowedzera mukuwedzera uye mukureba, kuratidzira pamusoro pekushomeka kwemvura kungangowanda mu2020, kunyanya munyika dzinosimbiswa nemvura senge India nePakistan, uye munyika dzeMiddle East seIran, Iraq neRebhanoni. Kurwisana kune chisimba pamusoro pemvura inowedzera kushomeka uye zviwanikwa zvepasi zvinogona kutarisirwa munyika dzakaita seMali neNigeria pakati pevarimi nevafudzi, nepo kusagutsikana kwevanhu kungangowedzera kusvika muhomwe dzekushomeka kwemvura kwakanyanya munzvimbo dzisiri kusimukira dzeItari neSpain pamwe neUS inoti yeNew Mexico neCalifornia.

izvi njodzi dzekufamba akave akaunganidzwa nechikwata cheRiskline chepasirese chevanoongorora njodzi panjodzi vanoongorora uye kuongorora nyaya mazuva ese.

ZVOKUBVA MUNYAYA INO:

Islamist terrorism will remain a risk for travellers in 2020 as former members of the weakened Islamic State (IS) will be looking to carry out reprisal attacks following the death of former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US-led raid in Syria in October 2019.
Attacks similar to the deadly March 2019 shootings at a mosque and an Islamic centre in Christchurch, New Zealand, and the August 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, remain possible particularly in the US, as right-wing groups gain more appeal and expand their presence in mainstream American politics.
When the UK leaves the EU, this will lead to major economic changes in the trading bloc and at the same time, EU members will face further economic disruptions from the US-China trade war fallout as, so far, none of President Trump’s Democratic rivals have promised to remove the tariffs imposed by his administration.